M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation, Economics
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Methodology and models

Methodology and models

M-Five is supporting our clients in their strategic decision-making in particular answering their questions on the ex-ante analysis of impacts of their alternative choices. To do so we apply a broad spectrum of qualitative and quantitative methodologies to analyse and explain the impacts and consequences of policies and strategic business decisions. We develop scenarios of the future society and its mobility system and discuss with you suitable and best fitting roadmaps for technological and service-based innovations.

A particular strength of M-Five is the combination of sector know-how of the mobility industry with our skills in quantitative analyses and modeling. M-Five is developing and running several models, most of them applying system dynamics, which is best suited to depict the growing interdependencies between transport, economy and society.

ASTRA model

Assessment of Transport Strategies (ASTRA) is a European integrated assessment model that integrates transport, technologies, energy, environment and economics into a consistent mathematical model. We use ASTRA for scenario analyses and impact assessments of transport policy, technology diffusion and climate mitigation policy. The model enables to measure transport impacts and macro-economic impacts. For any European Member State as well as Norway and Switzerland it incorporates a separate macro-economic model. The transport system is modelled at the level of NUTS-I/II zones for both passenger and freight transport, considering also the cross-border transport flows. For road transport vehicle purchase behavior is modelled depending on cost and availability of alternative powertrain technologies feeding cohort-based models that quantify the European fleet composition up to 2050. M-Five is in particular involved to develop the economic models and the vehicle fleet models of ASTRA. Further information on ASTRA can be found at the models website www.astra-model.eu

Fleet models

Since more than 15 years our experts develop cohort-based vehicle fleet models for road transport. These models simulate purchase decisions by discrete choice models taking into account consumer preferences, vehicle cost (fixed and variable cost components) and specific technological parameters like the density of the specific energy supply infrastructures. New purchased vehicles enter their related age cohorts in the fleet model, are ageing during the scenario simulation and finally are scrapped with certain probabilities. Using such cohort-based models M-Five simulates road vehicle fleets in Germany, in Europe and globally, including the diffusion of new technologies like in the past the diffusion of airbags or today the market entering of new powertrain technologies.

New business models

New seamless multi-modal mobility concepts (Fifth Mode) and the deepening integration of mobility-, energy- and IT-industries foster opportunities for new business models in mobility. One example is the growing number and variety of car-sharing services. In several cities we can observe the competition and co-existence of station-based systems with free-floating and peer-to-peer private systems. Successful systems seem to emerge when car-sharing and other mobility stakeholders engage in a high level of cooperation. Apart from car-sharing potential further stakeholders include public transport, IT-companies, fleet management services and parking management services. M-Five is supporting our clients to develop and test new business models, to search and engage with new business partners to cooperate with and to extend their mobility business by identifying potentials for business aquisitions. Our sound sector know-how and our broad network of stakeholders together with our capabilities for business model development make M-Five a competent partner when you are intending to develop new businesses in the mobility sector.

System Dynamics Modeling

System Dynamics Modeling had its most famous application during the 1970ies when the Club of Rome asked a group of MIT researchers to analyse the Limits to Growth. The methodology is best suited to analyse complex systems with non-linear feedbacks between different components of the socio-technical systems that make up todays society and its technology innovations. The development of standard software tools with powerful graphical user interfaces has made System Dynamics today a very important instrument for scenario and policy analyses.The M-Five experts therefore apply System Dynamics for our model-based analyses of mobility and the economic system. Their results and projects demonstrated the usability and meaningfulness of our System Dynamic tools for strategic decision-making in politics and industry at national and European level, for instance when it came to impact assessments of the German climate policy and the European transport policy.