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International project

Project: The impact of TEN-T completion on growth, jobs and the environment

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 06/2017 - 12/2018
Partner: M-Five (Lead), TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Ricardo-AEA

To develop a Common Transport Policy (CTP) was part of the Treaty of Rome in 1957. However, little progress was made over decades to implement the CTP. During the 1980ies several decisions of the European Court of Justice obliged the Member States to act on the development of the Common Transport Policy and thus to implement an important element of the Treaty of Rome as well as of the vision of an integrated Europe. This led to the publication of the first guidelines on how to develop an integrated multi-modal Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T guidelines, 1692/96/EC). The first guidelines still built on single projects while the consideration of the cross-border dimension of European transport networks was rather limited.

The second revision of the TEN-T guidelines emphasized to focus on eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks and in particular to establish good quality cross-border connections. Member States were committed to implement the TEN-T core network by 2030. The TEN-T guideline (Reg. 1315/2013) was accompanied by a new co-funding regulation establishing the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF, Reg. 1316/2013).

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the TEN-T implementation (i.e. for the period 2017 until 2030) on growth and jobs as well as to evaluate the major environmental impacts. The study was coordinated by M-Five.

The study used the project lists (as of mid 2017) of the nine core network corridors (CNC) that form the TEN-T core network. These projects were processed by M-Five and TRT to generate the data input for the transport network model TRUST and the integrated economic assessment model ASTRA. The two models were linked and the ASTRA model was used by M-Five to assess the growth and jobs impacts of the TEN-T implementation.

M-Five was responsible for the economic assessment, while TRT undertook the assessment of transport impacts. Analysis of investment plans of Member States to implement the TEN-T thus was a task of M-Five. This included the analysis of funding and financing plans of the project promoters, as well as the extension of financial market modeling in ASTRA that goes beyond the mere consideration of crowding out effects.

Economic impact assessment of the TEN-T focussing on the growth and jobs impacts was another task of M-Five using the macro-economic module of ASTRA. Our results revealed that the implementation of the TEN-T by 2030 would generate an increase of European GDP by 1,6% compared with the baseline in which TEN-T implementation would have stopped at the end of 2016. By 2040 the stimulus to GDP growth would lead to 2,6% higher GDP. By 2030 additional employment would amount to 800.000 jobs compared with the baseline, and by 2040 1,17 million new jobs would be generated. Italy, Spain, France and Poland all would gain more than 100.000 additional jobs by 2030. The cumulated number of additional job-years over the period 2017 to 2030 would amount to 7,5 million job-years due to the completion of the TEN-T.

The results of the study can be downloaded at the website of the European Commission using the following links:

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