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International project

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Project: Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving

Client: European Commission, Directorate-General Research and Innovation – GD RTD
Duration: 06/2019 – 10/2020
Partner: M-Five, Ecorys (Lead), TRT, Seureco, VTT, ERTICO, IRU, UITP, CAM


Topic and objective
Objective of the project is the analysis and assessment of the employment impacts of connected and automated driving (CAD). Growth and jobs impacts of scenarios of different diffusion pathways of CAD in Europe are quantified. Changing skill requirements and other social aspects are examined. Finally, the project aimed to recommend ways in which the positive aspects can be enhancedwhile the negative impacts can be avoided or mitigated.

Context
Technologies related to CAD are currently being developed. Higher levels of automation will be developed and adopted by 2050 and should seriously disrupt employment. On the other hand, there is currently a severe lack of drivers in freight transport and public transport that may be alleviated by CAD. The European automotive industry may benefit from the growth potential of value-added of future CAD technologies.

Challenges
  • Defining scenarios of CAD technology development and diffusion with uncertainty about future technology potentials and restrictions
  • Development of a European database at NUTS-II level on the status-quo of regional employment in freight transport and public transport differentiated into functions
  • Developing parameters for employment intensity of automated and emerging transport modes
  • Coupling quantitative and qualitative analyses Involving various stakeholders and interview partners

Research questions
  • How could trajectories for technology development and adoption look like in the short, medium and long run (until 2050)?
  • What is the growth and jobs impact of the adoption of CAD?-How is this development distributed among European regions?
  • What social challenges are related to the development of CAD?
  • What policy measures could be taken to mitigate adverse impacts on employment?

Research methods
  • Interviews with stakeholder
  • Development of a scenario model for technology development and roll-outs
  • Integrated modelling of growth and employment impacts of mobility services, vehicle manufacturing and second-round demand effects in the EU with the ASTRA model of M-Five
  • Developing a synthesis model for an assessment of regional impacts at NUTS-2 level, as well as of job categories
  • Qualitative assessment of skills requirements and social impacts

M-Five led the integrated modelling of CAD impacts, elaborated the growth and jobs impacts using the ASTRA model, developed the synthesis model to carry out the regional impact assessment at NUTS-II level in the EU and the analysis of growth potential of CAD for the EU automotive industry.


More Information:

Final Report: CAD Employment Impacts - Main Report
Annex to Final Report: CAD Employment Impacts - Annexes
CAD Broschure: CAD Employment Impacts - Broschure


Contact

daniel.berthold[at]m-five.de
christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

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