M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation, Economics
Fon: +49 721 824818-90
Fax: +49 721 824818-91

102580 Santa Monica BLVD Los Angeles +3 045 224 33 12

Follow Us on

Domestic projects

Project: Employment impacts of sustainable mobility: a holistic analysis of Germany for 2035

Client: Hans-Boeckler-Stiftung, Duesseldorf
Duration: 8/2016 – 02/2020
Partner: M-Five (Lead), Fraunhofer ISI

The project objective is to analyze the impact of sustainable mobility on employment in Germany until 2035. The mobility sector consisting of manufacturing of vehicles and provision of transport services is one of the largest sectors in Germany in terms of employment. Therefore structural change brought about by sustainable mobility needs to be looked at also from the employment perspective.

During the next two decades mobility will go through a drastic transition. Drivers will come from policy, technology and behavioral change. Policy-makers have agreed on ambitious goals for climate mitigation in Germany and in Europe. These can only be achieved, if transport is changing, reduces its energy demand and decarbonizes by getting rid of fossil fuel use. Therefore modal-shift towards environmental friendly and decarbonized modes like rail and public transport is getting political support, as well as the electrification of road transport.

Technological change is taking place by electrifying road vehicles and improving batteries, but also by an ever growing number of driver assistance systems in cars finally leading to the emergence of autonomous cars and trucks on the roads. Behavioral change occurs through the participation in car-, bike- and ride-sharing systems but as well by the acceptance of the innovative driverless vehicles.

Starting point of the project is a joint vision of sustainable mobility on which two contrasting scenarios of sustainable mobility are formulated for the time horizon 2035:
  • Multi-Modality-2035 (MM-35): describes a scenario in which multi-modal behavior became the dominant paradigm, with strong short and long distance rail transport, appealing car-, bike- and ride-sharing services mostly electrified.

  • E-Road-2035 (ES-35): is a scenario in which road transport is nearly fully electrified by 2035 and dominates mobility though public transport and active modes also managed to increase their modal shares.

The scenario analysis should answer the following five research questions:
  • Do fundamentally different scenarios of sustainable mobility exist?

  • What would be employment look like in a multi-modal dominated scenario?

  • What would be the employment structure in a fully electrified scenario?

  • Will sustainable mobility lead to different regional patterns of employment?

  • What is the net impact of sustainable mobility on employment?

The research questions should be addressed by a multi-methodology approach. Starting point will be the employment structure in Germany of 2015. Both scenarios will be developed until 2035 and the employment impact will be quantified by (1) a regional structural model, (2) an input-output table analysis, and (3) by an impact assessment using the integrated assessment model ASTRA for Germany. Thus by the first method the regional employment impact will be explained, while the second method provides the sectoral impacts and the third method the dynamic economic net impacts as well as the policy sensitivity.

M-Five is coordinating the project and is developing the scenarios and the regional model. Also we will apply the ASTRA model and are responsible for the synthesis and the development of recommendations.

During the project several working papers are written. Completed papers can be downloaded below:

< Back to domestic projects