National Projects

Client: Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport (BMDV)
Duration: 07/2022 - 12/2025
Partner: M-Five (Lead), Fraunhofer ISI, PTV Transport Consult, Technische Universität Hamburg (IUE, VPL), BBG und Partner Rechtsanwälte.

Topic and Objectives

The transport sector needs to make a contribution to GHG reduction. As the reduction targets set for transport from 2021 have not been met, further instruments must be used to achieve the targets. The German government has asked an expert advisory board to examine and propose further instruments. M-Five is leading the scientific support of this expert advisory board.

Context

Germany wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of -65% and achieve climate neutrality by 2045. With the Federal Climate Protection Act (KSG), a target of -48% compared to 1990 was legally adopted for national transport in 2021. The transport sector has fallen short of this target since 2021. With the Effort Sharing Regulation, Germany has also made a commitment to the European Union to reduce GHG emissions. Due to the current developments, this commitment will also not be achieved. It is therefore necessary to adopt additional instruments in order to achieve the climate targets for Germany and the EU.

Challenges

Achieving the climate targets in transport means a major transformation through the switch to electric vehicles in road transport, as well as shifts, efficiency improvements and sufficiency. The production and use of alternative renewable fuels is necessary for air and sea transport. Fully electric passenger cars and electrified commercial vehicles are available and the automotive industry has continuously geared its innovations and production planning towards electrification until 2030 since the financial crisis in 2009. The digitalization push due to corona has made a substantial contribution to sufficiency through increased home office and virtual meetings. Relocations are possible but limited within the existing infrastructure. Additional alternative fuels will not be available in significant quantities until 2030.

Research questions

The EKM has investigated which instruments can be useful to achieve the German government’s goal of having 15 million fully electric cars in the fleet by 2030. M-Five used its fleet model and its expertise in production in the automotive industry to contribute to the analyses. The fleet model and the expertise of M-Five were used to evaluate a set of instruments and to propose bundles of instruments with which the objectives could be achieved. Other issues addressed by the EKM relate to the contribution of digitalization in transport, the potential and regulation for the market ramp-up of alternative fuels, GHG reduction in the passenger car fleet as well as the acceptance of instruments proposed by the EKM. The EKM publishes its findings in policy briefs.

Research methods

The methods used follow scientific practice, starting with literature research on the respective instruments, an analysis of the interrelationships, costs and significance for various stakeholders, a survey on acceptance and modeling for impact assessment. For the latter, M-Five used the ASTRA-M model. The results were documented in slide sets and background papers for the EKM.

Publications

• Municipal survey on climate protection in the mobility sector
• Instruments for the passenger car fleet
• Use of alternative fuels: Regulation, potentials and technologies

Further infromation

Expert Advisory Board on Climate Protection: https://expertenbeirat-klimamobilitaet.de/

Contact

Dr. Wolfgang Schade, wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV)
Duration: 04/2024 – 04/2027
Partner: M-Five (sole processing of the lot, the other lots are processed by: Uni. Duisburg-Essen, TU Hamburg, KIT, Bauhaus-Uni. Weimar, IKEM, Wuppertal Institut)

Topic and objective

The Forschungs-Informations-System (FIS for short) is the central knowledge platform for politics, planning, practice and society in the fields of mobility and transport. The FIS was designed by the Ministry of Transport to inform politicians and interested members of the public about current problems and solutions in the mobility and transport sector. To this end, information on research results and current issues is summarized in the form of digital knowledge modules – primarily knowledge maps and synthesis reports. In order to keep the content informative and relevant, regular checks and, if necessary, updates are required. In addition, new topics that have become more important, for example due to technical innovations or political developments, must be included in the FIS.

Context

In other consulting and research projects, the focus is usually on generating knowledge. In the FIS project, on the other hand, the focus is on user-friendly knowledge preparation and communication. As the FIS was set up over 20 years ago and has grown considerably since then, the approximately 200 knowledge maps and around 3,000 synthesis reports have developed different needs for adaptation and updating. Thematically, the aspects of transport and mobility development have become more diverse. For example, in the course of digitalization and climate protection, cross-sectoral considerations have become even more important, resulting in new thematic references and information requirements. Formal requirements such as gender-sensitive language, copyrights and accessibility have also evolved in some cases and must be taken into account in line with the current state of good scientific practice. FIS is available online anytime and anywhere and is free of charge.

FIS is funded and published by the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV). Coordination and editorial support are provided by TÜV Rheinland Consulting GmbH and the Institute of Transport Research at the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation (IOSB) is responsible for the technical management and implementation of the platform.

Challenges

The contents of the FIS are not collections of knowledge as in search engines or some open source portals, but problem- and solution-focused summaries (syntheses) as a bridge between research and the (specialist) public. Another special feature are the knowledge maps, which are similar to mind maps and offer clear and intuitive access to complex issues. To this end, the terms of the map elements must be concise but also self-explanatory. A presentation that is as neutral and balanced as possible is also one of the characteristics of the FIS. In addition to the technically qualified preparation, attention is also paid to general comprehensibility in order to offer the interested public (e.g. students) added value. Finally, cross-references to other subject areas within and outside the FIS are to be established. This facilitates navigation on the FIS site and makes further information accessible. When maintaining and expanding the content, a wide range of requirements must therefore be taken into account, which we fulfill together with the FIS coordination, FIS technology and the editors of the other subject areas.

Tasks

Together with other research institutions, M-Five is responsible for the maintenance and quality control of existing content from previous contributors as well as the creation of new knowledge maps and associated synthesis reports. M-Five focuses on the topic of “future-proof and sustainable transportation systems”. This overarching topic includes the sub-areas of financing and economy, ecology and sustainability as well as air and rail transport. At the same time, networking takes place with those responsible for the other subject areas in order to work together on overlapping content. The obligation to provide documentation requires the most up-to-date evidence possible on issues and detailed information such as figures, graphics or legal sources. To this end, we carry out extensive background research and ensure the legally compliant integration of figures and sources into the FIS. Last but not least, M-Five is available to answer questions that arise from reading the FIS for external readers. The provision of information is therefore not limited to website maintenance, but also includes communication with individual users.

Further information

Link to the Forschungs-Informations-System des BMDV: https://www.forschungsinformationssystem.de
FIS-Factsheet: TRC_Factsheet_FIS-mit-QR-Code.pdf

Contact

Rafael Oehme, rafael.oehme[at]m-five.de
Dr. Christian Scherf, christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Environmental Agency, Dessau-Roßlau
Duration: 07/2023 - 09/2026
Partner: M-Five (lead), Prof. Dr. Knauff LL.M Eur. (subcontractor), Ipsos GmbH (subcontractor)

Topic and objective

The project investigates which regulatory framework conditions for the business models, operating concepts and data architectures are necessary to minimize the negative, traffic and socio-ecological effects of mobility platforms, and which further regulatory control requirements result from the new data generated and provided on mobility platforms.

Context

Increasingly, platform-based and data-driven mobility concepts are spreading, which bundle private, shared and public mobility offers on digital platforms, interconnect them intermodally and market them, especially according to the Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) principle. However, the transport and socio-ecological effects of this spreading platform economy in the transport sector are controversial and depend on the organizational and business models of these platform-based mobility concepts and the regulatory framework conditions on which it is based. The key levers for the desired behavioral changes as well as for the improvement of social participation are the data exchange between the actors, the organizational models of the providers, and the regulatory framework of the industry.

Questions

The central question is which problems currently existing in the transport sector hinder or impede beneficial developments and how these can be remedied in order to optimize the substantially existing socio-ecological potential of digital mobility platforms. This specifically asks how mobility behavior can be changed. In addition to open data and open source approaches on digital mobility platforms, other institutional economic and legal questions on data access, sovereignty and protection come into play. The questions are intended to provide answers that can be used to significantly influence the platform economy in transport to promote socio-ecologically sustainable mobility.

Research methods

Qualitative and quantitative research methods will be used to analyze the status quo of the supply landscape and user behavior in order to forecast the socio-ecological consequences. Analyses of the data architectures as well as the regulatory framework will reveal optimization potentials, which will finally be formulated into recommendations for action. In addition to online research, M-Five’s own INACD database will be used in particular to analyze the current market situation. The ASTRA-M model will be used for the impact assessment. The modeling will be based on empirical research results. For this purpose, the market research institute IPSOS will conduct a large-scale survey on user behavior. The survey results will be supplemented by the evaluation of mobility data from sources such as the Mobilithek. A comprehensive stakeholder process consisting of interviews and expert workshops will be used to examine the conditions, problems and improvement options of the IT infrastructures.

Publications

• Oehme R., Scherf C., Emmerich J., Emmerich C., Streif M., Schade W. (2024): Digitale Mobilitätsplattformen – Zwischenbericht zu Arbeitspaket 1: Analyse und Bestandsaufnahme zu plattformbasierten Mobilitätskonzepten und -angeboten. Zwischenbericht im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes (BMDV), Dessau-Roßlau. Published in 2024, available in German language from: Digitale Mobilitätsplattformen – Zwischenbericht zu Arbeitspaket 1.

Further information

Project profile in the environmental research database UFORDAT: go to http://ufordat.uba.de/

Contact

Dr. Christian Scherf, christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: own research
Duration: 03/2020 – today
Partner: M-Five (Lead)

Context and Objectives

At the beginning of 2020 we were alarmed by news about a new and highly infectious illness observed first in Wuhan, then at Bavarian companies and at the skiing-resort of Ischgl in Austria. As futurologists and as a ThinkTank we soon tried to understand potential developments, and to deepen our understanding and knowledge of what was later on called the Covid-19 pandemics. In March 2020 we started our analyses of the pandemics with the objective (1) to understand its short-, medium- and long-term impacts, (2) to provide advice on consequences of the pandemic, and (3) to propose measures to mitigate or overcome the impacts. Of course, we leave the medical analysis to doctors and virologists. Our analysis focusses on impacts on mobility and employment as well as the interdependencies between Covid impacts, pandemic mitigation politics and climate mitigation policy.

Methodological approach

Our methodology consists of three elements: (1) permanent observation of ongoing national and international developments like mobility levels in Germany, foreign trade statistics, air transport demand, numbers of employees in short-time, etc., (2) we analyse recent studies on expected economic, financial or transport impacts of the pandemics, and (3) we use our integrated assessment model ASTRA to simulate scenarios for the next quarters and the next 10 years to assess the impacts of the pandemics quantitatively.

As a next step we are about to assess the impacts of measures to dampen the negative impacts of the pandemics while fostering also the implementation of the European Green Deal and the climate mitigation targets.

Findings and results

End of April 2020 we published our initial assessment of economic and transport impacts of the Covid-19 pandemics (only in German). We simulated a scenario with one lockdown, which would reduce German gross domestic product (GDP) by about 5% to 6% in 2020 compared with our reference scenario. In a second scenario we introduced a second lockdown leading in total to a loss of between 6% and 9% of GDP. Actually GDP in Germany in 2020 was 5,3% lower than in 2019 confirming our analyses and simulations. In terms of employment we expected a loss of 4 million full-time equivalent jobs (FTE) with one lock down lasting one quarter and of 6 million FTE with a second lockdown in 2020. Our estimate considered both employees in short-time work and self-employed e.g. in restaurants or other services. Statistical figures reported on employment changes in Germany are much lower. However, these cover only persons with an employment contract but neglect the self-employed in services like dancing schools, theatres, fitness studios and other socio-cultural services and thus seem to underestimate the actual employment opportunities lost.

Our ongoing analyses focuses on the medium- to long-term impacts on mobility in Germany as well as on the update of our medium- to long-term reference scenarios for Germany and for Europe incorporating the changes observed in the year 2020.

Publications

• Schade W., Berthold D., Scherf C., Stich M. (2020): Überlegungen zu Szenarien der verkehrlichen und ökonomischen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie in Deutschland. M-Five Policy & Futures Notes, Sonder-Ausgabe No. 1, Karlsruhe. Available in German languague from: Überlegungen zu Szenarien
  der verkehrlichen und ökonomischen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie in Deutschland (<1 MB).

Please, get in touch with us if you would be interested to cooperate on the analyses to mitigate the impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic

Kontakt: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de, daniel.berthold[at]m-five.de

Client: The Universität der Bundeswehr München
Duration: 01/05/2021 - 30/06/2024
Partner: M-Five, The Universität der Bundeswehr München

Topic and Objectives:
The Munich Mobility Research Campus (MORE) aims to make mobility of the future tangible. It pursues a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to the development and evaluation of sustainable, efficient and safe digital mobility in the future. Within the framework of MORE, the sub-project of M-Five aims to simulate potential market ramp-ups of alternative drivetrains and to estimate their overall environmental and climate-economic effects. 

Context:
MORE combines the research fields of energy and propulsion, spatial development and traffic, connectivity and autonomy, and opportunities and impacts. Based on future mobility needs, MORE develops holistic solutions, including spatial planning, local production of C0₂-neutral energy sources, innovative powertrains and autonomous driving. 

Challenges:
Analysing and evaluating the sustainability of technologies and processes is a key challenge for meeting our climate targets. Within the framework of MORE, the research team addresses the question of how sustainable electric mobility and alternative fuels really are.

Research questions:
The project addresses the following research questions:

• Efficiency/life cycle analysis of different drivetrains and synthetic fuels
• Development of an extended Energy Return on Invested Energy (EROI) concept
• Simulation of market ramp-up & estimation of economic and ecological effects
• Identification of holistic effects and derivation of political recommendations for action.
  

Research methods:
M-Five supports the project by assessing the possible effects of a market ramp-up of different drivetrain technologies for the passenger car fleet in Germany. The team generates analytically derived market ramp-up scenarios of alternative drivetrains using the ASTRA model and subsequently evaluates them with regard to their economic and ecological effects. Further, the corresponding ramp-up of green electricity production should be modelled more sophisticated.

Further information:
https://www.unibw.de/more
https://m-five.de/en/methods-and-tools/astra-model

 Contact: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de, max.kleemann[at]m-five.de

Client: Hans-Boeckler-Foundation, Duesseldorf
Duration: 07/2023 - 05/2024
Partner: M-Five (individual assignment)

Topic and objective

The project aims to answer the question of how employment will develop after the introduction of a nationwide public transport ticket (Deutschlandticket) under currently foreseeable conditions in public transport companies. The overall objective of the study is to compare employment developments with and without the Deutschlandticket in a temporal and spatial perspective.

Context

With the introduction of the Deutschlandticket, public transportation is experiencing a turning point. A ticket that is valid throughout Germany regardless of the transport association in which it was purchased already existed in 2022 (nine-euro ticket). It was valid for three months and caused congestion peaks in some places. However, due to the limited action riding area, it could hardly have any longer-term effects on supply. So far, the focus of public debate has therefore mostly been on demand and sustainability effects, and has mainly involved financial or climate policy issues. The Deutschlandticket, on the other hand, also has lasting effects on the revenue and fare structures of public transport. The project will focus on the resulting consequences for employment in public transport. The situation of employees is already tense in the context of prevailing working conditions and staff shortages. In addition to existing tasks, such as infrastructure renewal and demographic change, public transport employees face further challenges in view of the new ticket. Broad sections of politics and society are striving for a significant increase in passenger numbers in order to mitigate the effects of climate change and reduce dependence on fossil resources. The employment situation could be further exacerbated by the possible additional demand for public transport capacity.

Questions

The Deutschlandticket already raises questions that have not yet been asked in previous demand calculations and employment models for public transport: Will there be more or fewer jobs in public transport companies after the start of the Deutschlandticket (in total) than in the period before the Corona pandemic? How are the jobs in public transport companies likely to change in terms of the type of deployment (e.g. distribution between driving service, technical service and administration)? To what extent do changes in fare structures and ticket subsidies affect the personnel costs of public transit jobs? The answers to these questions should facilitate the estimation of future personnel requirements and employment distribution in public transport companies. The answers are thus intended to contribute to an early response to the labor policy consequences of the Deutschlandticket.

Research methods

In the project, scenarios with time horizons up to a maximum of 2045 are developed. In the reference scenario, it is assumed that there would be no Deutschlandticket in order to create a basis for comparison. In the ticket scenarios, it is assumed that the ticket introduced in May 2023 will be offered in the long term and that, as a result, the demand for public transport services will change compared to the reference based on today’s ticket and passenger figures. A current timetable database is used to determine and locate the future service, and its quantity structures (vehicles, lines, frequencies, etc.) are reallocated according to the expected change in demand. Empirical methods (interviews, online survey and workshop) will be used to involve stakeholders and trade unions in the realistic estimation of supply. Depending on the provision of public funds and other framework conditions, it will be concluded how strongly the public transport service will react to the change in demand. Finally, employment-relevant effects (number, type and location of employment relationships) can be derived from this.

Results

The results showed slight increases in personnel requirements and personnel costs in both D-ticket scenarios. However, the D-ticket effect on employment is weak compared to the general staff shortage, financial bottleneck, etc. In the real scenario, the need for personnel is also greatly dampened due to the limited expansion of services. The D-ticket is expected to result in only minor shifts between the personnel categories of transport services, technology and administration. With regard to the spatial effects, it was noticeable that the calculated increases in personnel are often in areas where the majority of the population lives in cities. For certain modes of transport, however, there were regional peculiarities, insofar as dependencies on specific locations (e.g. cities with trams) occur. If these location factors remain in place, in the ideal scenario areas with a majority rural population will also benefit from the increase in employment as a result of the D-ticket.

Further information

Contact: christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Information on the HBS website: https://www.boeckler.de/de/suchergebnis-forschungsfoerderungsprojekte-detailseite-2732.htm?projekt=2023-622-1

Client: Hans-Boeckler-Foundation, Duesseldorf
Duration: 02/2023 - 04/2023
Partner: M-Five (individual assignment)

Topic and objective

The project “Knowledge Base on the Deutschlandticket” explored the question of how public transport employment could be affected by the introduction of a nationwide local transport ticket. Literature research was conducted to compile the current state of knowledge on the effects of the nine-euro ticket and comparable offers on public transport demand and employment.

Context

With the introduction of the Deutschlandticket, public transport is experiencing a turning point. While the focus of the public debate is mostly on the impact on demand and thus on climate and financial policy issues, this project focused on the employees of the sector. The personnel situation is tense due to prevailing working conditions as well as staff shortages. Nevertheless, in order to mitigate the climate change, a significant increase in ridership is targeted, which could further aggravate the employment situation. In addition to existing problems, such as service expansion and demographic change, employees face additional challenges in light of the new ticket.

Challenges

Due to the similar design, research results on the nine-euro ticket have yielded numerous findings regarding the impact of demand, usage, and socio-demographic characteristics of users. However, these results could only be partially transferred to the Deutschlandticket due to different conditions and frameworks. Despite this limitation, central factors for the employment effects of the Deutschlandticket could be identified.

Questions

The short project addressed the question of how the number and type of employees in local public transport could be influenced by the introduction of a ticket valid throughout Germany. It was examined to what extent conclusions could be drawn about demand and ultimately employment needs by evaluating the average willingness to purchase.

Research methods

With the help of literature research, a knowledge base was created on the topic of employment in public transport, the Deutschlandticket and comparable offers. Following the research, a rough estimate of the employment effects of the Deutschlandticket was carried out. The first step was to describe the design of the ticket, which has been a subject of discussion between the federal government, the states and the public transport industry until recently. Furthermore, the connection of the new fare offer with market dynamics was outlined, whereby impact correlations of Deutschlandticket and employment were shown. For an initial rough estimate, the expected demand was inferred from surveys on willingness to buy. From the expected change in transport performance, the effect on employment was estimated using personnel ratios (employees per passenger kilometer).

Further information

Contact: christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
Duration: 05/2020 – 12/2023
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Lead), PTV Group, M-Five, Technische Universität Hamburg (IUE, VPL), IVE, Technische Universität Dresden, TRIMODE, Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzbug-Schweinfurt, BBG und Partner

Context

The Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MFS) was initiated by the Federal Government in 2012. It constitutes the core political platform to implement the energy and mobility transition of the transport sector and thus also for decarbonisation of the German transport system. The Federal Ministry of Transport (BMDV) is supported by the NOW GmbH and by a scientific Consortium to implement the MFS. Since 2015 M-Five is part of the scientific support to the Ministry. Dr. Wolfgang Schade from M-Five is one of the three coordinators leading the scientific support.

Objectives and political framework conditions

With the Climate Plan 2050 and following the ambitions of the Paris Climate Agreement the Federal Government has agreed in 2016 on a strategy to put Germany on a path towards climate neutrality by 2050. The implementation of that strategy via policy instruments and ambitious regulation is a stepwise process and still ongoing. Important milestones have been the Climate Action Programme 2030 (KSPr-2030) and Federal Climate Change Act (KSG), which in 2021 moved the target to achieve climate neutrality in Germany forward to 2045. The KSPr-2030 proposed more than 50 measures and instruments for the transport sector, which would be implemented until 2023 and would reduce GHG emissions of transport for the target horizon 2030 and beyond. The Climate Change Act (KSG) defined a GHG reduction trajectory for each sector from 2020 until 2030. The responsibility for achieving the targets along the trajectory was assigned to the respective Ministries. An independent annual monitoring concludes on target achievement or failure to achieve. In the latter case the Minister of Transport has to act and present a mitigation programm to ensure target achievement. The target fort he transport sector in 2030 is a reduction of GHG by -48% compared with the 1990 emission level.

Our activities and methodology

M-Five is coordinating the impact assessment of policy measures and instruments and is evaluating their systemic impacts in the transport sector and related industries for the next decade and until 2050. We are using our strategic model ASTRA-M e.g. to analyse modal-shift, to quantify market diffusion of electric cars and electric trucks as well as the reduction of GHG and energy demand from transport. To assess the cost and benefits and distribution between users, industry and government is part of our activities in the MFS. ASTRA-M enables us to quantify a reference scenario including all yet implemented policies against which additional instruments or policy bundles of instruments are assessed.

As part of our MFS tasks M-Five was providing scientific support to the high level group on mitigation of climate impacts of transport of the National Platform Future of Mobility (NPM), and is currently supporting the German expert group on climate mitigation of transport (EKM).

Results

The reference scenario (REF-2020) provides a quantification of future transport demand, greenhouse gas emissions, the transition towards electric mobility and the coupling with the energy sector for the period 2021 until 2035. REF-2020 is generated by an iterative approach by which newly generated knowledge or changes of the framework conditions can be considered in an update and would lead to modifications of the scenario and the indicator results, The most recent version oft he scenario covers the concluded policy measures until end of August 2020 and is documented in Gestaltung des MKS Referenzszenarios für die Periode 2021 bis 2035 (7 MB). REF-2020 is applied to assess the impact of further measures to be taken to achieve the GHG targets of the transport sector by 2030.

Publications

• Schade W., Stich M., Kleemann M., Berthold D., Scherf C., Krail M., Brauer C., Krauß K., Anstett P., Walther C., Waßmuth V. (2022): Gestaltung des MKS Referenzszenarios für die Periode 2021 bis 2035 (REF-2020). Arbeitspapier im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Digitales und Verkehr. Karlsruhe. Published in 2022, available in German language from: Gestaltung des MKS Referenzszenarios für die Periode 2021 bis 2035.
• Schade W., Oehme R., Emmerich J., Scherf C., Streif M., Pestel E., Strauß P., Walther C. (2023): Bewertung von Ausgestaltungsvarianten des Deutschlandtickets für den ÖPNV. Kurzstudie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Digitales und Verkehr. Karlsruhe. Published in 2023, available in German language from: Bewertung von Ausgestaltungsvarianten des Deutschlandtickets für den ÖPNV.
• Schade W., Anstett P., Berthold D., Emmerich C., Emmerich J., Haug I., Khanna A., Krail M., Oehme R., Streif M., Walther C., Waßmuth V. (2023): Gestaltung des MKS-Referenzszenarios für die Periode 2022 bis 2050 (REF-2050). Arbeitspapier im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Digitales und Verkehr (BMDV), Karlsruhe. Published in 2023, available in German language from: Gestaltung des MKS-Referenzszenarios für die Periode 2022 bis 2050 (REF-2050).

Further information

Contact: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: Hans Boeckler Foundation (HBS), Duesseldorf
Duration: 01/2020 - 02/2022
Partner: M-Five (Lead); IZT – Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Berlin

Subject and objective

The project investigates the structural change of added value and business strategies in public transport when it is extended by new mobility services. The focus is on future options for action and design for corporate governance. This includes push factors, cause-effect relationships and potential for change in public transport as well as consequences for work and employment. The project is part of the research network “The Economy of the Future” at HBS.

Context

Through automation, digitalisation, electrification and decarbonisation, public transport is currently on the threshold of massive change. Value creation is changing primarily through the networking of services and automation of driving, as well as through the reorganisation of mobility behaviour. The private sector has become an important factor of value-added change: transport service providers and Internet companies as well as numerous start-up companies are working on new mobility services and business models. Since March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has also caused a massive slump in demand, presenting both old and new providers with enormous financial challenges. The project deals with service innovations and new technologies in the context of the sectoral transformation of the mobility economy. It examines characteristic business models of public transport, sharing and platform operators and other market players. The consequences of the changes affect not only the actual value added but also the standards of “good work” and participation as well as ecological conditions.

Research questions

The central question is which actors and push factors are causing the transformation towards data and service based business models in public transport: Which quantitative and qualitative effects does this cause in the value creation of public transport? Specifically, we asked how new mobility services change the competition between providers in terms of benefit distribution and standard setting. The next question refers to the significance of transformation for regional, national and international value chains. Further sub-questions concern the specific consequences for providers, users and employees: To what extent, for example, are the gender conditions affected by the structural change? What should political recommendations for action and governance arrangements contain in order to identify undesirable developments and unintended consequences early on and to prevent conflicts?

Methods

The Technological Transition Model, also known as the Multi-Level Perspective according to Frank W. Geels, serves to identify transformation paths. This model describes the current situation of mobility providers in their transformation dynamics and assigns them to typical business models. Case studies provides exemplary descriptions of services, which we investigate in detail. Interviews will be carry out on the topics of corona effects, working conditions, participation, corporate strategy and standards. We will show the relationships between added value structures and the elements of the CANVAS business model according to Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur. The scenarios developed out of this describe the range of possible diffusion paths of the business models in the future market environment. The final step is a potential and risk assessment of the models with regard to socio-economic profit and burden distribution, which we will discussed with stakeholders in a workshop.

Publications

• Kollosche, Ingo; Oehme, Rafael; Schade, Wolfgang; Scherf, Christian; Streif, Marcel; Thomas, Dirk: Der Wert des ÖPNV zwischen Gemeinwohl und Kommerz. Forschungsförderung Working Paper Nr. 255, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf 2022, verfügbar unter: https://www.boeckler.de/de/faust-detail.htm?sync_id=HBS-08388.

• Zwiers, Jakob; Büttner, Lisa; Behrendt, Siegfried; Kollosche, Ingo: Wandel des öffentlichen Verkehrs in Deutschland. Veränderung der Wertschöpfungsstrukturen durch neue Mobilitätsdienstleistungen. IZT – Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung, Berlin 2020. Published in 2021, available in German language from: https://www.boeckler.de/de/faust-detail.htm?sync_id=HBS-07934.

Further Information

Information on the research network by the HBS (in German): https://www.boeckler.de/de/die-okonomie-der-zukunft-18476.htm

Contact: christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
Duration: 09/2018 – 06/2021
Partner: M-Five (Lead), Fraunhofer ISI, PTV Group, Technische Universität Hamburg (IUE, VPL), IVE, BBG und Partner

Context 

In Summer 2018 the National Platform Future of Mobility (NPM) was convened implementing the coalition agreement of the 19th election period. The NPM should be the focal point discussing strategic choices for the future of mobility in Germany. In total six working groups are seeking for solutions to challenges of future mobility covering: climate mitigation, alternative drivetrains and fuels, digitalisation of mobility, employment, coupling of transport and energy sectors, setting of standards and norms for future technologies.

Our activities and results 

M-Five is continuously supporting the working group Transport and Climate Change (WG1). We are leading the scientific team providing scientific advice to the 19 stakeholders participating in the working group. Our analyses have been compiled, discussed and contributed to the publication of the following reports of WG1:

• Ways to achieve the 2030 climate targets in the transport sector (interim report 03/2019)
• Ways to decarbonize heavy trucks with a focus on electrification (interim report 12/2020)
• Alternative fuels – Climate impacts and ways to use alternative fuels (interim report 12/2020)

Further information 

Kontakt: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI), Berlin
Duration: 7/2015 – 3/2020
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Lead), PTV Group, M-Five, Fraunhofer IML, University Hamburg (IUE, VPL)

The Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MKS) was started by the government in 2012. Objective of the MKS is to develop the national strategy to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of transport in Germany. The agreement of the COP21 in Paris in 2015 to limit global warming well below 2 degree and the presentation of the Climate Mitigation Plan 2050 with the target of reducing GHG by -40% to -42% until 2030 as opposed with 1990 increased the importance of the role of the MKS as a means to achieve these targets.

The Ministry of Transport engaged a Consortium of research institutes and mobility experts for scientific support to develop the MKS. M-Five is part of that Consortium and leads the strategic and systemic analysis of the MKS as well as that we contribute the European perspective to the analysis. We are / have been involved in a feasibility study on the use of catenary trucks for long distance heavy goods transport, studies on the potentials of cross-border rail transport, a study on the impact of driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicles as well as on the decarbonisation of air transport.

Further information

Contact: wolfgang.schade [at] m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
Duration: 09/2016 – 12/2018
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Leitung), Fraunhofer IML, PTV Group, M-Five, Technische Universität Hamburg - VPL

Context and objectives

Today all new purchased cars, busses and trucks are equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Technological development will lead to improved systems enabling automated and autonomous driving of road vehicles. One basic feature of such systems is to support energy-efficient driving thus reducing energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of road transport. Objective of this study was to estimate the GHG reduction potential of connected and automated driving (CAD) in Germany until 2030 and until 2050. The analysis should also consider the potentials generated by enabling new mobility services due to CAD.

Methodology

Starting point was a global desk research and analysis of development paths and costs of various ADAS, future automation technologies and their components. M-Five elaborated a roadmap how such technologies would be used to realize the five automation levels of the SAE scale in road transport. The use of CAD technologies was analysed specifically for cars, busses and trucks. Market rollout of technologies based on additional cost and willingness-to-pay was modelled by vintage based vehicle fleet models for two scenarios. M-Five contributed to the development of scenarios elaborating the use of new mobility services. Serveral stakeholder workshops were conducted to validate the technology cost assumptions, the market- and mobility-scenarios.

Results

Until 2030 the GHG reduction potential of deploying CAD in German road transport was estimated between 5,2 and 7,6 Mt CO2eq.. By achieving level 5 autonomous driving until 2050 the potential increases to 7,8 until 11,5 Mt CO2eq.. GHG reductions result both from primary effects of more energy-efficient driving and from secondary effects of altered mobility behaviour using new services. The larger share of GHG reductions comes from truck transport. Detailed results are presented in the Final Report (in German only).

Further information

Kontakt: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
Duration: 11/2015 – 02/2017
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Lead), Fraunhofer IML, PTV TC, TU Hamburg IUE, M-Five

Context

Freight transport is emitting roughly one third of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of transport in Germany. About 80% of these are accounted for by heavy trucks above 3,5t gross vehicle weight (GVW). Thus GHG reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 can only be achieved when heavy trucks are significantly reducing their emissions. Efficiency improvements of diesel fuelled trucks triggered by setting CO2 standards for light duty vehicles (<= 3,5t GVW, by EU REG 2019/631) and heavy duty vehicles (>=16t GVW, by EU REG 2019/1242) contribute to the required GHG reduction. However, to achieve the European and the national climate targets the efficiency improvements of trucks with combustion engines will not be sufficient. Hence, also trucks will have to become electrified as a second strategic element to achieve GHG reductions. While for LDV and medium-size trucks battery electric drivetrains have proven availability the transition path for electrification of heavy trucks is still not decided. Expert discussions consider battery electric trucks (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric trucks, hydrogen fuel cell trucks (H2-FC) and catenary trucks (being hybrids as well with a diesel engine or a large battery).

Objectives and research questions

The objective of the feasibility study was to analyse the question how catenary-diesel-hybrid trucks could become successful on the German market by 2030. The analysis covered technical and economic details of the vehicle as well as of the catenary infrastructure including the connection with the grid. The research also included a techno-economic comparison of catenary trucks with other alternative drivetrains. Finally, transition pathways and the potential fit of catenary trucks into the European transport policy was analysed.

Findings and results

The feasibility study concluded that catenary-diesel-hybrid trucks would constitute a competitive solution for about 80% of heavy goods truck traffic in Germany. To satisfy this demand requires to build-up a catenary network (both directions) at about 4.000 km of German motorways. Investment cost amount to between 8 and 10 Billion €, which at least partially would need to be financed by the government as during infrastructure rollout the demand will be too low to cover the implementation cost. Until 2030 up to 70.000 heavy catenary trucks would be feasible to operate on a core motorway network of 2.500 km length equipped with catenary cables.

However, acceptance of catenary trucks was observed to be weak related to several aspects and would need to be improved. A europeanwide implementation of a catenary network for trucks was deemed to be inconsistent with EU modal-shift policy favoring rail mode. Truck manufacturers did expect insufficient market size to cover their R&D expenditures if catenary trucks would only be operated in Germany. The logistics sector is aware of economic advantages of catenary trucks due to lower running cost, but on the other hand is expecting to reduce flexibility of trucking. Also selling used catenary trucks in second hand markets only of Germany or a few other countries was seen as a limitation. M-Five worked on the analysis of the European dimension and contributed to the elaboration of the strategic conclusions. The results are published in the final report (in German only).

Further activities on alternative trucks

The analysis of decarbonisation of trucks to achieve climate reduction targets is one of the major competences of M-Five. By applying our truck fleet models we are simulating and assessing the diffusion of alternative drivetrains into the different size categories of the truck fleet. The simulations are sensitive to different policy options of the heavy goods vehicle charge, different variants of subsidies, variations of battery price scenarios, etc.

As part of our activities in the German Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MFS) we coordinated the support activities to the Initiative on climate friendly road freight transport initiated by the Ministry of Transport and led the working group on alternative drivetrains. We supported the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their workshops on heavy truck futures and in the preparation of the report on The Future of Trucks.

Further information

Contact: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
Duration: 01/2019 - 12/2021
Partner: M-Five GmbH, ESA² GmbH, Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT-IIP), Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft der Universität Duisburg-Essen, Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft an der TU Dresden (Koordinator)

Background

In Germany, a completely new energy landscape is being developed with increasing networking and resulting interactions between the various actors and new technologies. Model-based energy system analyses are an important tool to understand these complex relationships and mechanisms of action. On this basis, targeted impulses can be set, which should drive the system development in the desired direction. In the past decades, various model approaches have been developed, which now have a very broad methodological spectrum. In MODEX-EnSAVes, a methodically oriented model comparison is to be carried out on the basis of a concrete application case.

Role of M-Five GmbH

• ASTRA-D model for analyzing the development of the passenger transport sector, especially with regard to the share of different (new) drive technologies
• Direct model comparison: Comparison of the results from transport models
• System view comparison: Cross-system comparison of the use cases by coupling the individual model groups to an energy model system (EMS)
• Iteration step comparison: Comparison of the model results of individual iteration steps in the iterative application of the coupled model groups in the Energy Model System (EMS)

Methods and Technologies

• ASTRA-D model for analysing the development of the passenger transport sector, especially with regard to the share of different (new) drive technologies
• Direct model comparison, System view comparison, Iteration step comparison

Objectives and Methodology of the Model Comparison

The aim of the model comparison is to compare the results of different model approaches for the market launch of new electricity applications. The model experiment focuses on the areas of electro-mobility and heat pumps in residential buildings, for which the consortium uses a variety of detailed models with a specific analysis focus. Since the investment decisions for vehicles and building heating systems are made by different actors, there are many influencing factors that are mapped differently in the individual model approaches.

At the same time, increased electrification also has implications for security of supply and, in particular, the question of how critical supply situations such as “cold dark doldrums” can be managed in the winter in the future. Therefore, models for demand development are coupled with electricity market models. The latter are specially designed for an analysis of future generation security in terms of “generation adequacy”, i.e. adequacy of generation and other backup capacities to manage periods of high residual load. For this purpose, future expected load profiles for the new power applications are derived from the demand side models and used as input for the electricity market models.

The electricity market models examine whether and how the demand for electricity can be covered in the future over the course of the year by exploiting the flexibility potential of the generation plants and demand applications. In particular, the focus should be on a year with extreme weather conditions. By comparing the results, it should be deduced how the modelling of flexibility potentials affects the security of supply and the generation adequacy.

Further Information

Web presence Modex-EnSAVes

Further information to other MODEX-Projects

Poster: Poster_2e_Modex-EnSAVes.pdf

Special Issue Paper: How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars – An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany
In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 158 (2022) 112103
Autoren: T. Gnann , D. Speth , K. Seddig , M. Stich , W. Schade , J.J. Gomez Vilchez

Contact: contact[at]m-five.de

Client: City of Ettlingen
Duration: 08/2020 – 05/2021
Partner: M-Five (Lead)

Subject and objective

M-Five is supporting the city of Ettlingen in (1) developing a Climate Mitigation Strategy for achieving climate neutrality, which will serve to define (interim) greenhouse gas reduction targets, both overall and at sector level, and (2) a climate protection master plan to the next decade to 2030. The Climate Protection Master Plan serves implementation planning by selecting suitable measures to achieve the goals set.

Context

Ettlingen has in need of a revision and advancement of the 2010 climate protection master plan, both to minimize the risks that will arise from climate change and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation requirements at national and EU level in the next decade (e.g. German climate programm 2030, EU Green Deal), and to take advantage of the corresponding opportunities (e.g. subsidies, pioneering position, opportunities for local entrepreneurs).

As early as 2019, M-Five compiled a brief study of Ettlingen’s activities in the field of climate protection and environmental policy, assessed them in relation to national requirements and, based on this, compiled an overview of the need for action and options for action.

Challenges

Climate mitigation is a cross-cutting issue for the city and the citizens. Therefore it needs to be considered in all areas like Buildings, Commerce, Mobility and Energy. Therefore it is necessary to integrate and dovetail the climate protection plan with Ettlingen’s Integrated Urban Development Concept, which is also currently being developed. M-Five will be closely involved in this process.

Differing views between actors with regard to climate protection measures will be taken into account by addressing local particularities and by bringing about a constructive exchange through technical expertise and facilitation experience of M-Five.

Research question

An important decision to be taken by the city is the level of ambition of the climate mitigation strategy to be developed: While high ambition implies corresponding investments, low ambition (extreme: inaction) results in increased costs from CO2-fines defined at the federal level, growing energy expenditures (e.g. due to the national CO2 pricing system) as well as in opportunity costs from not taking advantage of funding opportunities. Leverage points must be identified which are not only cost-efficient but also combine to form a strategy that makes the population and commerce a strong driver of local climate protection.

Actions are combined in a way such as to maximise desirable synergies and minimise goal conflicts and undesirable trade-offs (with respect to climate protection and other political fields of action).

Research methods

The sectoral work packages each include a screening-, discussion-& coordination- and a synthesis phase. The screening phase analyses the past development of the sector, the status quo and the current planning (targeted measures) as well as measures from other municipalities in terms of suitability in the light of local characteristics. Existing data is used and additional interviews are conducted. Frequent exchange of information enables close integration with the Integrated Urban Development Concept.

In the discussion/coordination phase, proposals for measures developed are assessed and evaluated by the relevant stakeholders, using appropriate participation formats such as interviews and (online) workshops.

In the synthesis phase, the package of measures (the Master Plan) is revised and finalised on the basis of the modifications proposed by stakeholders during the previous phase.

In the first work package, the overarching legislative frameworks (state, federal, EU) and expected respective future tightenings will be analysed in a scenario-based approach to support political evaluation and decision-making with regard to agree on municipal greenhouse gas reduction targets, highlighting both the risks of low ambition and the opportunities of climate protection.

On the basis of the above decisions, proposals will be developed in further work packages for the sectors buildings, mobility, commerce and energy following the phased approach outlined above: Screening, discussion and coordination and finally revision, culminating in the Climate Protection Master Plan.

Further information

Contact: contact[at]m-five.de

Client: Mercator Stiftung, Essen
Duration: 05/2015 – 11/2015
Partner: M-Five (Lead), Fraunhofer ISI

Climate policy developed for transport is based on extensive model based scenarios. Development of population and the economy as well as of the oil prices constitute the central general framework of such scenarios. The low oil price level since 2014 is clearly below the expected developments within the currently applied transport scenarios in Germany. The low oil price does alter the traffic scenarios: the traffic demand tends to be underestimated and the diffusion of efficient and alternative propulsion technology tends to be overrated.

Aim of this study is a methodically sound analysis and quantification of the effects of low oil prices on the transport scenarios in the examined studies. Thereby the relevant and completed domestic studies requested by different stakeholder of the German Transport and Climate politics were analyzed as well as studies requested by the European Commission. Recommendations how the Energy and Climate objectives in the transport sector in Germany might be reached despite the low oil price are proposed based on these examinations. In particular, economic incentives may compensate the lack of stimulus by the oil price, like increases of fuel tax and bonus-malus systems for purchase of low carbon cars.

The project is completed. A summary and the complete paper can be downloaded here.

Client: Federal Ministry for Economics and Energy (BMWI), Berlin
Duration: 09/2015 – 12/2017
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Lead), Consentec, Ifeu, TU Wien, M-Five

Renewable energies are one of the cornerstones for the protection of climate and climate mitigation politics in Germany. Nowadays the transport sector still relies to more than 90 % on crude oil as energy source. To achieve the climate mitigation targets in the future also the transport sector will need to achieve a substantially higher share of usage of renewable energies. Full decarbonisation of transport by 2050 even implies a complete phase out of use of fossil fuels in the transport sector and replacing these fully by alternative energy carriers (e.g. direct electricity use, Bio-LNG, power-to-gas (PtG)) derived from renewable energies, in particular from renewable electricity production.

In this project various strategies to achieve different levels of climate mitigation targets has been examined as well as different energy policy goals. At the same time all relevant sectors have been considered e.g. production of energy, industry, buildings and transport. M-Five is responsible to develop scenarios and policy measures for the transport sector as well as for quantitative analyses of these under different climate mitigation configurations and targets. Our analyses of the transport system are published here:
In relation to an 80% climate reduction scenario to be achieved at minimum cost: Reference and Baseline Scenario for the long-term transition of the German energy system
In relation to strategies to achieve a 95% GHG reduction scenario by 2050: Thoughts on strategies and options to achieve 95% decarbonisation in Germany and short summary
The full set of results including all different scenarios on how the transition of the German energy system could be organized until 2030 and until 2050 can be downloaded here.

Client: Hans-Boeckler-Stiftung, Duesseldorf
Duration: 8/2016 – 02/2020
Partner: M-Five (Lead), Fraunhofer ISI

The project objective is to analyze the impact of sustainable mobility on employment in Germany until 2035. The mobility sector consisting of manufacturing of vehicles and provision of transport services is one of the largest sectors in Germany in terms of employment. Therefore structural change brought about by sustainable mobility needs to be looked at also from the employment perspective.

During the next two decades mobility will go through a drastic transition. Drivers will come from policy, technology and behavioral change. Policy-makers have agreed on ambitious goals for climate mitigation in Germany and in Europe. These can only be achieved, if transport is changing, reduces its energy demand and decarbonizes by getting rid of fossil fuel use. Therefore modal-shift towards environmental friendly and decarbonized modes like rail and public transport is getting political support, as well as the electrification of road transport.

Technological change is taking place by electrifying road vehicles and improving batteries, but also by an ever growing number of driver assistance systems in cars finally leading to the emergence of autonomous cars and trucks on the roads. Behavioral change occurs through the participation in car-, bike- and ride-sharing systems but as well by the acceptance of the innovative driverless vehicles.

Starting point of the project is a joint vision of sustainable mobility on which two contrasting scenarios of sustainable mobility are formulated for the time horizon 2035:
Multi-Modality-2035 (MM-35): describes a scenario in which multi-modal behavior became the dominant paradigm, with strong short and long distance rail transport, appealing car-, bike- and ride-sharing services mostly electrified.

E-Road-2035 (ES-35): is a scenario in which road transport is nearly fully electrified by 2035 and dominates mobility though public transport and active modes also managed to increase their modal shares.

The scenario analysis should answer the following five research questions:

• Do fundamentally different scenarios of sustainable mobility exist?
• What would be employment look like in a multi-modal dominated scenario?
• What would be the employment structure in a fully electrified scenario?
• Will sustainable mobility lead to different regional patterns of employment?
• What is the net impact of sustainable mobility on employment?

The research questions should be addressed by a multi-methodology approach. Starting point will be the employment structure in Germany of 2015. Both scenarios will be developed until 2035 and the employment impact will be quantified by (1) a regional structural model, (2) an input-output table analysis, and (3) by an impact assessment using the integrated assessment model ASTRA for Germany. Thus by the first method the regional employment impact will be explained, while the second method provides the sectoral impacts and the third method the dynamic economic net impacts as well as the policy sensitivity.

M-Five is coordinating the project and is developing the scenarios and the regional model. Also we will apply the ASTRA model and are responsible for the synthesis and the development of recommendations.

During the project several working papers are written. Completed papers can be downloaded below:

• Employment impacts of sustainable mobility: Basic Principle and Scenarios (only in German – 1 MB)
• Status-quo of value-added and employment of mobility in Germany (only in German – 12 MB)
• The mobility transition at regional perspective – Projecting valued-added and employment of mobility at regional level in 2035 (only in German – 8 MB)
• The mobility transition at sectoral level – Assessment of employment impacts until 2035 using input-output-analysis (only in German – 2 MB)
• Economic impact assessment of the transition to sustainable mobility (only in German – 6 MB)
• Synthesis and recommendations of employment impacts of the transition to sustainable mobility (only in German – 6 MB)

Client: Foundation Mercator, Essen
Duration: 09/2015 - 8/2018
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI (Lead), Fraunhofer IML, Uni Antwerpen, Infras, T&E, M-Five

The EU Commission in collaboration with the EU Parliament and its member states has defined a trans European traffic network (TEN-T). The so called core network shall be implemented until 2030. This consists of nine long distance corridors with high importance to the European traffics. To some extent the corridors overlap with the so called freight corridors. This study examines in which way the decarbonization of the freight traffic might succeed within the European transport corridors and if the dislocation objectives of the European white paper for traffic are achievable.
In doing so the scenarios of the future development of the railway system and the competing shipping and road traffic are developed. These scenarios are minimized to two corridors to the land North Rhine-Westphalia (Federal state in Germany) to be able to examine measures and effects. M-Five is responsible for the development of the future scenarios for the street traffic along the corridors.