International Projects

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE
Duration: 01/2022 - 06/2023
Partner: Ricardo (Lead), BBG, M-Five, TEPR, TRT

Topic and Objectives:
The general objective of this study is to support the European Commission in further strengthening the legal framework to facilitate the deployment and operational use of multi-modal passenger transport across the EU. The aim is to improve the functioning of the transport system by enhancing interfaces between all modes of transport – traditional and novel ones. This should reduce the negative externalities of road transport, contribute to climate mitigation and the positive effects should benefit all transport users.

Context:
The objective of the project is the simplification of planning and buying tickets for multimodal journeys for travellers in the EU. Multimodal digital mobility services (MDMS) can be defined as “systems providing information about,  among other things, the location of transport facilities, schedules, availability and fares, of more than one transport provider as well as reservations, payments or issue tickets” (e.g. route-planners, Mobility as a Service, online ticket vendors, ticket intermediaries). They help both passengers and/or other intermediaries to compare different travel options, choices and prices, and can facilitate the sale and re-sale of mobility products from different operators, whether private or public, within a mode of transport or across modes. By facilitating the framework for accessing information, booking, and paying of mobility services, MDMS will improve the sustainability, resilience, flexibility, efficiency and convenience of the transport system.

Challenges:
Multimodal digital mobility services (MDMS) are currently deployed in a fragmented manner, lacking proper legal and market frameworks to develop more successfully and to provide a full range of offers across the EU. While Mobility as a Service (MaaS) applications at difference MaaS levels are being developed in many cities, the legal framework for their development varies from one Member State to another. For long distances, few multimodal digital services, that provide passengers with comprehensive multimodal and multi-operator options, exist. Many issues remain, such as difficult co-operation between mobility operators and multimodal digital mobility services, complex and lengthy negotiations on licences, data protection and use, as well as distribution agreements, lack of common standards and interfaces, and lack of solutions concerning revenue sharing. In some cases, these distribution agreements between operators (both public and private) and digital service providers are unbalanced, as bargaining power is unevenly distributed in favour of incumbents.

Research questions:

• How to create certainty and transparency for business agreements between companies for mobility services and stimulate door-to-door travel chain agreements?
• How to prevent harmful market effects that may result from discriminatory behaviour of MDMS towards operators?
• How to ensure that the deployment of MDMS is not hindered by discriminatory practices?
• How to ensure that MDMS improve the efficiency and sustainability of the transport system?

Research methods: (Our activites and methods)

• Impact assessment (IA) – analysis of potential instruments and packaging of policy options addressing market challenges for the development of Multimodal Digital Mobility Services (MDMS)
• Modelling of user behaviour and transport impacts in response to improved MDMS covering larger areas and higher MaaS levels and coupling with the European-scale ASTRA-model
• Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) – Revision of Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/1926 on Multimodal Transport Information Services (MMTIS)
• Desk and field research (interviews, online surveys, case studies, data requests)

Further information:

• About the initiative “Multimodal digital Mobility Services” of the EU Commission

Contact: christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 06/2017 - 12/2018
Partner: M-Five (Lead), TRT, Ricardo

To develop a Common Transport Policy (CTP) was part of the Treaty of Rome in 1957. However, little progress was made over decades to implement the CTP. During the 1980ies several decisions of the European Court of Justice obliged the Member States to act on the development of the Common Transport Policy and thus to implement an important element of the Treaty of Rome as well as of the vision of an integrated Europe. This led to the publication of the first guidelines on how to develop an integrated multi-modal Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T guidelines, 1692/96/EC). The first guidelines still built on single projects while the consideration of the cross-border dimension of European transport networks was rather limited.

The second revision of the TEN-T guidelines emphasized to focus on eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks and in particular to establish good quality cross-border connections. Member States were committed to implement the TEN-T core network by 2030. The TEN-T guideline (Reg. 1315/2013) was accompanied by a new co-funding regulation establishing the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF, Reg. 1316/2013).

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the TEN-T implementation (i.e. for the period 2017 until 2030) on growth and jobs as well as to evaluate the major environmental impacts. The study was coordinated by M-Five.

The study used the project lists (as of mid 2017) of the nine core network corridors (CNC) that form the TEN-T core network. These projects were processed by M-Five and TRT to generate the data input for the transport network model TRUST and the integrated economic assessment model ASTRA. The two models were linked and the ASTRA model was used by M-Five to assess the growth and jobs impacts of the TEN-T implementation.

M-Five was responsible for the economic assessment, while TRT undertook the assessment of transport impacts. Analysis of investment plans of Member States to implement the TEN-T thus was a task of M-Five. This included the analysis of funding and financing plans of the project promoters, as well as the extension of financial market modeling in ASTRA that goes beyond the mere consideration of crowding out effects.

Economic impact assessment of the TEN-T focussing on the growth and jobs impacts was another task of M-Five using the macro-economic module of ASTRA. Our results revealed that the implementation of the TEN-T by 2030 would generate an increase of European GDP by 1,6% compared with the baseline in which TEN-T implementation would have stopped at the end of 2016. By 2040 the stimulus to GDP growth would lead to 2,6% higher GDP. By 2030 additional employment would amount to 800.000 jobs compared with the baseline, and by 2040 1,17 million new jobs would be generated. Italy, Spain, France and Poland all would gain more than 100.000 additional jobs by 2030. The cumulated number of additional job-years over the period 2017 to 2030 would amount to 7,5 million job-years due to the completion of the TEN-T.

The results of the study can be downloaded at the website of the European Commission using the following links:

• Synthesis Report: The impact of TEN-T completion on growth, jobs and the environment.
• Report on Methodology and Results: The impact of TEN-T completion on growth, jobs and the environment.

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 12/2021 - 10/2022
Partner: Ecorys (Lead), M-Five, TRT, Hacon

Topic and Objectives:
In the vision of the “European Green Deal” (COM/2019/640 final) and the “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy” (COM/2020/789) for the future EU transport system, a substantial part of the 75% of inland freight carried today by road should shift onto rail and inland waterways. Rail freight traffic is projected to increase by 50% by 2030 and double by 2050. By 2030, rail and waterborne-based intermodal transport should be able to compete on an equal footing with road-only transport in the EU.

To achieve these targets, the Strategy announced a number of actions addressing the rail sector, including:

• Action 19: Measures to better manage and coordinate international rail traffic, including – if necessary – through revised rules for capacity allocation and infrastructure charging in rail;
• Action 24: EU 2021 Rail Corridor Initiative – Revise the Rail Freight Corridor Regulation.

This impact assessment study is therefore aimed at providing evidence-based support for developing a new initiative implementing these actions in order to contribute to the shift of long-distance freight transport (over 300 km) to rail with the purpose of ensuring maximum reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in EU transport.

Context:
The development of rail freight transport has always been central to EU’s transport policy, mainly driven by concerns on the sustainability and competitiveness of the transport system. In 2010, the European Parliament and the Council adopted Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 concerning a European rail network for competitive freight. In 2021, the Commission published the evaluation of this Regulation concluding that the Regulation failed to considerably improve the performance of rail freight transport and that the existing EU legal framework contains a number of insufficient provisions and regulatory gaps. Also, the “European Green Deal” (COM/2019/640 final) and the “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy” (COM/2020/789) set new and more ambitious targets for EU climate change and rail policy.

Challenges:
Rail freight transport faces two key challenges, namely (1) the lack of competitiveness of rail freight services vis-à-vis other modes of transport, in particular road-only transport, and (2) the limited capability of the rail system to absorb additional (freight) transport volumes, which restricts the growth potential of rail freight transport. The lack of competitiveness of rail freight results in inadequate performance of rail freight services and failure to meet customer needs such as reliability, punctuality, predictability, and competitive transit times. There are already limits to the growth of rail freight today and, given the ambitious growth targets for rail transport, capacity constraints (without appropriate measures) will become more frequent and widespread.

General research objectives:
The following general objectives are indicated as the focus of the study:

1. Improving the performance of rail services, in particular cross-border freight services, by further developing rail infrastructure capacity management and allocation as well as rail traffic management;
2. Boosting multimodal transport by further integrating rail freight services in multimodal transport chains.

Research methods:
M-Five will contribute to the project its competencies in analysing and designing policies for the rail sector, its ability to carry out impact assessments applying the EU Better Regulation guidelines as well as its approach to assess indirect impacts, in particular on growth and jobs by applying the ASTRA model.

Further information:

• https://m-five.de/en/methods-and-tools/astra-model
• https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0789

Contact: contact[at]m-five.de, werner.rothengatter[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE
Duration: 01/2022 - 05/2023
Partner: Ricardo (Lead), M-Five, TRT, TEPR, Dr Bart Wiegmans

Topic and Objectives:
The European green deal (COM/2019/640 final) sets out a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 % until 2030. To achieve the target, the European Commission has presented concrete proposals for new climate, energy, transport and tax policies. Promoting modal shift is a crucial aspect for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. The targets set by the SMSS (Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, COM/2020/789) are to increase rail freight by 50 % until 2030 and to double it by 2050, while inland waterways and short sea shipping should increase by 25 % until 2030 and by 50 % until 2050, both compared to 2015 levels.
The purpose of this project is to deliver a support study to the impact assessment on a possible revision of Council Directive 92/106/EEC of 7 December 1992, which regulates the establishment of common rules for certain types of combined transport of goods between Member States, the Combined Transport Directive (hereafter referred to as “CTD”).

Context:
The now 30-year-old version of the CTD no longer adequately addresses the current objectives of European (transport) policy. As the European Green Deal from 2019 states, the overall objective is to significantly reduce GHG/CO₂ emissions. This also holds for the transport sector. Further promoting modal shift from road freight traffic to more sustainable modes of transport is crucial to reduce the transports CO₂ emissions by 90 % as planned. After the withdrawal of the previous CT Directive amendment in 2020, improved proposals are expected. The overall objective of the CTD amendment is to increase the attractiveness of CT and thereby increase the share of rail, short sea shipping and inland waterways in total freight transport in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the 2050 climate neutrality target and to reduce other negative externalities such as congestion and accidents.

Challenges:
Due to limited incentives and inefficiencies, only a part of the goods is transported intermodally as combined transport. Compared to road freight, combined transport has disadvantages such as higher costs, higher reliability risk and a lack of flexibility. Furthermore, there is a lack of effective incentives, such as the inclusion of external costs or other financial support measures. The key to achieve the overall objectives of GHG reductions and modal-shift to rail is to identify the right measures and policies and to design them in a way that they reach the desired effect.

Research questions:

• What are the problems with the current Directive and the current combined transport services?
• What should be the objectives of the renewal of the directive?
• Which measures, tools, policy measures and/or policy options are available and which are most appropriate to address the problems and reach the objectives?
• Which impact would the implementation of the proposed measures have?

Research methods:
M-Five contributes its long-standing experience in EU transport policy and in the rail sector to the study being responsible for analysing policy alternatives that are suitable to achieve the objectives.
Starting with a broad set of potential measures, the task is to screen, evaluate and combine the measures to policy options, which are bundles of policy measures, that address the problems and meet certain criteria, such as eligibility as well as political and technical feasibility. The initial results are complemented by methods of field research such as stakeholder consultation in form of online surveys and interviews

Further information:

Contact: rafael.oehme[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 02/2021 - 10/2021
Partner: M-Five (Lead), TRT, TEPR, Ricardo

Topic and Objectives:
As part of the highly dynamic policy framework to reduce the environmental footprint of transport activities, the EC has foreseen the revision of the TEN-T Regulation. This revision builds on the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy driven by the European Green Deal and the transport sector’s contribution to EU 2050 climate neutrality target.

TEN-T policy is vital for zero- and low-emission mobility. It has unique strengths in integrating all modes of transport, in closely interacting with relevant transport policy areas and in incorporating smart infrastructure, making it an indispensable basis for a highly efficient transport system.

The study carries out the analysis accompanying the impact assessment for the revision of Regulation (EU) N° 1315/2013 on Union Guidelines for the development of the trans-European transport network. Supported by two European scale modelling tools, ASTRA and TRUST, the study provides the assessment of three alternative policy options in terms of their transport, economic, social and environmental impacts and identifies the most promising one.

Context:
The European Union with the European Green Deal (EC COM(2019) 640 final) has agreed to implement the Paris Climate Agreement leading the EU towards climate neutrality in 2050. In a more detailed communication in 2020, the European Commission proposed to increase the climate ambition for 2030 and reduce EU GHG emissions by 55% compared to 1990 (EC COM(2020) 562). For the transport sector, the EC published a new “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy” in December 2020 (EC COM(2020) 789), presenting the strategic policy framework to achieve the GHG reductions required by the transport sector by 2030 and by 2050.

The revision of the TEN-T guidelines is one of the major transport related policies besides the revision of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure and the Intelligent Transport System directives and the revision of the Rail Freight Corridors regulation.

The TEN-T Regulation aims to support the functioning of the internal market, to foster economic, social and territorial cohesion and to enhance accessibility and connectivity of all regions of the European Union. It integrates transport infrastructure development and relevant transport policy aspects (such as road safety and smart infrastructure) and thus enables efficient, inclusive and sustainable transport solutions.

Challenges:
The decarbonisation targets for 2030 (-55% compared with 1990 levels) and 2050 (90% reduction of CO2 emissions) call for an adjustment of the TEN-T Regulation. Raising the targets adds more pressure on the TEN-T modal-shift target and – as contribution to decarbonisation and resilience – puts more emphasis on accelerating the digitalisation of the TEN-T network. Further, the perception of singular incidents (“the Rastatt tunnel collapse”) and accelerated impacts of climate change (e.g. flooding) have reinforced the need to increase the resilience of TEN-T networks.

General research objectives:
The overall objective of the study is to provide the Commission with a robust evidence base in support of an impact assessment for the revision of the TEN-T Regulation.

Research methods:
The project includes both quantitative and qualitative analyses of policy options examining their transport, economic, social and environmental impacts up to 2050.
The core of the quantitative modelling activities is based on the integrated application of two modelling tools, ASTRA and TRUST, each specialized in providing specific indicators. The ASTRA model covers the economic, vehicle fleet and environmental indicators. The TRUST model covers the network details of the TEN-T network including the core network corridors (CNC) and the core and comprehensive networks.

In parallel with the policy modelling, the institutional requirements for the implementation and monitoring of the policy options are analysed and their administrative costs are assessed.

The quantitative analysis of the policy options is complemented by a qualitative analyses of safety, resilience, connectivity and cohesion, biodiversity and noise. Special attention is given to the assessment of the risk of flooding.

Furthermore, results of the Open Public Consultation (OPC) on the revision of the TEN-T Regulation are summarized and analysed.
Finally, the quantitative and the qualitative assessments as well as the evaluation of administrative cost are brought together in the comparison of policy options.

Further information:

• https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_6725
• https://m-five.de/en/methods-and-tools/astra-model
• http://www.trt.it/en/tools/trust/

Contact: meike.stich[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission, DG MOVE
Duration: 09/2023 – 07/2024
Partner: M-Five (Lead), TRT Trasporti e Territorio (TRT), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL)

Topic and Objectives:
The objectives of this study are twofold: i) to identify the climate risks on the TEN-T and the adaptation measures and investments needed to make the TEN-T more climate resilient (climate risk analysis), ii) to understand the investments needed to complete the TEN-T; the facilitating role of the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF), and the foregone benefits resulting from non-completion, particularly of the cross-border projects (TEN-T’s completion analysis). The results of this study will inform and prioritize the European Commission’s future investment decisions in the context of the upcoming Multiannual Financial Framework starting from 2028.

Context:
A well-connected and secure transport system and infrastructure is the basis for all human, social, and economic activities. The network-based policy of the TEN-T, established in 2013 and revised in 2024, plays an important role in accelerating the EU’s growth. It also supports competitive industries, fosters jobs, and ensures the EU’s resilience to geopolitical threats. The implementation of the TEN-T policy, including the timely completion of its core and extended core networks, is imperative.
At the same time, the completed networks need to be resilient to the threat of climate extremes, which have caused substantial damages to the transport infrastrucrure in the past, further leading to severe effects on the economy and human lives. Nokkala et al. (2012)* estimated the total cost to the European transport system due to climate extremes which, in 2023 value terms, amounts to EUR 19 billion per year.

* Nokkala, M. Leviäkangas, P., and Oiva, K. (2012). The costs of extreme weather for the European transport systems, EWENT project, Deliverable 4. VTT Technology 36, ISBN 978-951-38-7853-5, T36.pdf (vtt.fi), last accessed on July 09, 2024.

Research questions:

Climate risk analysis

• What parts of the TEN-T are subject to climate risks in the future?
• How do climate extremes affect the different modes of transportation?
• What adaptation measures should be introduced to circumvent or at least reduce the effects of climate extremes?
• What are the investments required for adapting the TEN-T?
• How much of the investments have already been planned by the Member States?
• What are the investment gaps in adaptation of the TEN-T?

TEN-T’s completion analysis

• What are the investments needed to complete the TEN-T and update the technical parameters?
• What role does CEF play in ensuring the completion of the TEN-T and particularly the cross-border projects?

Research methods:

• Climate risk modelling for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5
• Vulnerability assessments; development of Transport Vulnerability Index
• Development of adaptation cost database with an array of adaptation measures and their unit costs
• Expert interviews
• Stakeholder workshop
• Interviews with selected Member States
• Survey to Core Network Corridors (CNCs) consortia
• Survey to Member States
• Assessing the cost of non-completion of the cross-border projects using TRUST and ASTRA models

Contact:
Dr. Arpita Khanna, arpita.khanna[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission
Duration: 09/2019 –12/2020
Partner: TRT (Lead), M-FIVE, TEPR, MC Mobility Consultants GmbH, Ricardo

Subject and objective

The purpose of this support study is to provide the Commission with evidence on the implementation and performance of the Regulation (EU) 913/2010 on the establishment of European Rail Freight Corridors (RFC) and its impacts in the EU. To that end, our study team following the EU Better Regulation Guidelines answered 21 evaluation questions grouped under the evaluation criteria of relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value.

Context

Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 September 2010 concerning a European rail network for competitive freight traffic defined the framework conditions for the creation of international Rail Freight Corridors (RFC) for the development of a European rail network for competitive freight. The regulation lays down rules for the selection, organisation, management and investment planning of the rail freight corridors.

Challenge

The success of European rail freight is hampered by a mix of technical and operational barriers resulting from lack of full interoperability and insufficient cooperation between both railways and Member States. The complexity and heterogeneity of international rail freight transport require a methodology capable of investigating the development since 2010 and the current situation using a wider set of approaches.

Research question

Did the regulation establish a successful and competitive rail freight network e.g. able to increase its modal share? To answer this question 21 evaluation questions were set-up grouped under the evaluation criteria of relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value are answered.

Relevance: how well do the objectives of the EU intervention match the needs and problems of long distance rail freight in Europe. Answering this question determines whether there is a mismatch between the objectives of the intervention and the needs or problems.

Effectiveness: Was the regulation effective? Here the progress made by EU rail freight transport due to implementing the provisions of the Regulation was assesses and the specific contribution of the Regulation to the achievements of the general, specific and operational objectives was analysed.

Efficiency: Do benefits cover cost ? This criterion seeks to compare the costs that stakeholders, users and regulators have to bear in order to implement the Regulation with the benefits that accrue from the provisions of the Regulation itself.

Coherence: This criterion examines the extent to which the provisions of the Regulation are consistent with other EU legal acts on transport policy (e.g. on TEN-T) as well as with related economic and environmental policies.

EU added value: Here a general comparison of the actual situation with expectations at the time the Regulation was introduced is undertaken as well as it is analysed if the objectives of the regulation require intervention at EU level to solve the problems.

Research methods

M-Five contributed its long-standing experience in EU transport policy and in rail sector to the study and participated or was responsible for the following tasks:

• Desk research and analysis of literature
• Field Research: data collection and stakeholder engagement via survey-questionnaire and interviews
• Preparation of quantitative datasets (e.g. on European trade structures and foreign trade) and indicators from databases and mixed analogue/digital systems
• Topical case studies
• Estimation of costs and benefits of the regulation.

Further information:

Contact: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission
Duration: 08/2019 – 01/2021
Partner: Ricardo (Lead), TRT, M-FIVE, TEPR, E3MLab

Subject and objective

The evaluation aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the White Paper, analyse and assess the proposed action points, the outcomes achieved and, where applicable, their preliminary impacts. Furthermore, the overall political impact of the strategy is assessed.

Context

The White Paper “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area” (EC COM(2011) 144) defined the strategic objectives of the European transport policy for the time horizons 2030 and 2050. For 2050 for the first time a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target has been defined for the transport sector, which should reduce its GHG emissions by -60% compared to 1990. By 2030 in urban areas only have of cars should be conventionally fuelled with combustion engines, for 2050 all conventional cars should disappear in cities. To achieve these major objectives four action areas, 40 measure areas and 131 measures have been defined and proposed. The White Paper is still being implemented and certain initiatives are still in progress while new ones were recently introduced (e.g. the Mobility Packages adopted in 2020). Other developments such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the European Green Deal change the broader framework in which the White Policies are operated.

The evaluation will need to map the implementation of the White Paper measures so far and distinguish between evidence on real impacts (realised to date) and further anticipated impacts (which may not have yet realised).

Challenges

• Broad range of policy initiatives and instruments covering a wide range of thematic areas in all transport modes and implementation of policies at different government levels.
• Need to disentangle the effect of the 2011 White Paper versus other policy initiatives and background trends.
• Need to map and match information from across a range of data sets, literature sources and consultation approaches.
• Successfully engage stakeholders and decisions-makers.

Research questions

The study will have to apply the EU Better Regulation Guidelines to evaluate the impacts and the success of the White Paper. The impacts will be analysed for the following five criteria:

Assess the effectiveness of the overall strategy and the 40 action areas: how successful the strategy has been in achieving its objectives & the progress made across the different policy areas.

Efficiency: Examine the extent to which the costs of the White Paper strategy have been proportionate to the overall benefits achieved.

Verify the relevance of the needs and objectives identified in the White Paper in view of the current and future developments in the transport sector

Assess the coherence of the White Paper objectives with targets set in other relevant policy areas, such as the Europe 2020, and the 2020 to 2030 agendas

Examine the EU added value of defining such a common EU transport strategy.

Research methods

Experts of M-Five contributed to the study with their knowledge from supporting the definition of the White Paper during the period 2008 until 2011. M-Five analysed the implementation of the White Paper in six Member States and works on:

• Topical and country case studies
• Desk research and literature analysis
• Interviews
• Survey

Further Information

Contact: wolfgang.schade[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission DG MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 10/2014 - 06/2015
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI/M-Five (lead), PTV, Infras

The EU Commission in collaboration with the European Parliament and the Member States has defined a Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). Until 2030 the so called core network shall be implemented. This network consists of nine long distance traffic corridors with high importance for the European transport system. This core network is part of the European reference scenario. In this study the economic impact of an absent implementation of the European core network to the EU and its Member States has been examined. Building on the results of the nine so called corridor studies of 2014 the modifications of accessibility, cost and investment in case TEN-T network would not be implemented by 2030 has been estimated.

These adapted infrastructure scenarios then have been examined in a model based analysis applying the ASTRA model. Substantial macroeconomic losses because of an absent realization of the core network have been identified thereby. Especially the realization of cross-border projects connected with the core network and innovative technologies did exhibit highly positive inputs to the macroeconomic development. Staff of M-Five did coordinate the project. Dr. Wolfgang Schade presented the results of the study at the TEN-T days 2015 in Riga to experts and the press.

The project is completed and the final report might be downloaded here. A summary is also available here.

Client: European Commission, Directorate-General Research and Innovation – GD RTD
Duration: 06/2019 – 10/2020
Partner: M-Five, Ecorys (Lead), TRT, Seureco, VTT, ERTICO, IRU, UITP, CAM

Topic and objective

Objective of the project is the analysis and assessment of the employment impacts of connected and automated driving (CAD). Growth and jobs impacts of scenarios of different diffusion pathways of CAD in Europe are quantified. Changing skill requirements and other social aspects are examined. Finally, the project aimed to recommend ways in which the positive aspects can be enhanced while the negative impacts can be avoided or mitigated.

Context

Technologies related to CAD are currently being developed. Higher levels of automation will be developed and adopted by 2050 and should seriously disrupt employment. On the other hand, there is currently a severe lack of drivers in freight transport and public transport that may be alleviated by CAD. The European automotive industry may benefit from the growth potential of value-added of future CAD technologies.

Challenges

• Defining scenarios of CAD technology development and diffusion with uncertainty about future technology potentials and restrictions
• Development of a European database at NUTS-II level on the status-quo of regional employment in freight transport and public transport differentiated into functions
• Developing parameters for employment intensity of automated and emerging transport modes
• Coupling quantitative and qualitative analyses Involving various stakeholders and interview partners

Research questions

• How could trajectories for technology development and adoption look like in the short, medium and long run (until 2050)?
• What is the growth and jobs impact of the adoption of CAD?
• How is this development distributed among European regions?
• What social challenges are related to the development of CAD?
• What policy measures could be taken to mitigate adverse impacts on employment?

Research methods

• Interviews with stakeholders
• Development of a scenario model for technology development and roll-outs
• Integrated modelling of growth and employment impacts of mobility services, vehicle manufacturing and second-round demand effects in the EU with the ASTRA model of M-Five
• Developing a synthesis model for an assessment of regional impacts at NUTS-2 level, as well as of job categories
• Qualitative assessment of skills requirements and social impacts

M-Five led the integrated modelling of CAD impacts, elaborated the growth and jobs impacts using the ASTRA model, developed the synthesis model to carry out the regional impact assessment at NUTS-II level in the EU and the analysis of growth potential of CAD for the EU automotive industry.

Further information:

Download Final Report: CAD_Employment_Impacts_Main_Report.pdf
Download Annex to Final Report: CAD_Employment_Impacts_Annexes.pdf
Download CAD Brochure: CAD_Employment_Impacts_Brochure.pdf

Contact:

daniel.berthold[at]m-five.de
christian.scherf[at]m-five.de

Client: European Commission DG MOVE, Brüssel
Duration: 09/2015 – 12/12017
Partner: TIS pt (Lead), INECO, EGIS, BG Consulting Engineers, M-Five

The TEN-T regulation of 2013 (REG 1315/2013) defines a core and a comprehensive network. The core network consists of nine core network corridors (CNC) that should be implemented by 2030. One of these corridors is the Atlantic CNC. The CNC have been inaugurated in 2013 and each of them is developed by a European Coordinator together with the stakeholders along the corridor and the Member States concerned. The Atlantic CNC runs from Portugal via Spain and France to Germany. It connects the European urban nodes of Lisbon, Porto, Madrid, Bordeaux, Paris with Strasburg and Mannheim.

Prof. Carlo Secchi is the European Coordinator responsible for the Atlantic CNC. He is supported by so-called corridor studies carried out by an international consortium. M-Five is part of that consortium and keeps contact with the stakeholders between Mannheim and Saarbrücken/Forbach in Germany. Our tasks included the observation of project progress, the update of the project list as well as the analysis of indirect economic impact of the corridor as well as of environmental improvements.

We also elaborated the growth and jobs analysis for all nine corridor studies. Our activities supported the development of the 3rd Work Plan of the Atlantic CNC.

Client: European Commission DG RTD/MOVE, Brussels
Duration: 12/2015 – 1/12019
Partner: TRT (Lead), PTV Group, E3MLab, M-Five, Bauhaus Luftfahrt, MDS

The TRIMODE Consortium is developing an integrated transport model for passenger and goods transport in Europe. Core of the TRIMODE model will be a network and assignment model considering all modes in Europe as well as their interconnection with intercontinental transport. Spatial disaggregation is at NUTS-III level. An economic model of each European country as well as of other world regions will be coupled with the transport model. Vintage models of vehicle fleets will enable to describe the diffusion of new technologies as well as the estimation of transport energy demand and emissions.

The TRIMODE model should be applied for future policy assessment at the European level e.g. at the level of the TEN-T core network corridors or to understand the process of decarbonisation of European transport.

M-Five is contributing to the modeling of passenger and goods transport. We are responsible for the supervision of the economic modeling and to ensure the policy relevance of the TRIMODE model.

Client: European Parliament, budget committee, Brussels
Duration: 05/2015 - 10/2015
Partner: Fraunhofer ISI, M-Five

The consolidation of the European train system was one of the main priorities of the European White Paper of 2001. This is why the railway infrastructure projects are one of the most important elements of the trans European traffic network (TEN-T). The European Co funding of the projects did take place over the TEN-T fonds and the structure fonds. However, the latter were far better equipped than the TEN-T fonds. Only one fifth of the European funds were allocated to the railway system. The increase of the TEN-T funds in the current financing period 2014 to 2020 is a clear prioritisation for the railways and demonstrated this in the allocation of funds.
The study examined whether EU funding has been used efficiently in the past to achieve the goals of European transport policy. For this purpose, the general financing structure was analysed, and the efficiency of the achievement of objectives was examined on the basis of four case studies.
M-Five analysed the general funding structure, examined innovative funding instruments, elaborated one of the case studies and co-developed the conclusions and recommendations.

The project is completed and the report can be downloaded here.

Client: European Parliament, Committee for Transport and Tourism (TRAN), Brussels
Duration: 01/2016 - 03/2016
Partner: M-Five

Since the pre-accession phases, the Member States located in Central and Eastern Europe have been receiving EU funding to be invested in transport infrastructure. These investments have improved connectivity and accessibility in the New Member States substantially. Our study showed, however, that gaps remain. We analysed how current policy instruments could contribute to close such gaps, and how this policy could be improved.

The resulting note provides an overview of connectivity and accessibility of transport infrastructure in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States (CEMS) – ‘from north to south’: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. It also highlights the major related issues and assesses the scope for improvements, including those related to the TEN-T policy and funding principles. All CEMS are supported by TEN-T funds (CEF) and structural funds (ERDF and CF) with a view to improving their transport systems and connecting them better with the other Member States. Five of the new TEN-T ‘core network corridors’ (CNC) pass through them. Our brief study can be downloaded at the European Parliament.

Client: European Parliament, TRAN-Committee, Brussels
Duration: 01/2016 - 03/2016
Partner: M-Five

Fully-fledged logistics services play an important role for the success of railways and inland waterways as part of European transport chains. Therefore interoperability of railways and inter-modality between modes enabled by multi-modal terminals are a very important issue along the corridors of the TEN-T core network. Our brief study discusses the status of logistics and how to achieve a better performing multi-modal transport system on the TEN-T core network making use of existing policy instruments but also improving them.

The resulting policy note on Logistics in the TEN-T Corridors provides an overview on logistics in the EU, its economic importance and its relevance for achieving the objectives of the White Paper on transport policy. It discusses the contributions of the nine core network corridors (CNC) of the Trans European Transport Networks (TEN-T) to foster intelligence of infrastructure, modal integration, interoperability and connectivity. A review is given on the interplay between the development of the CNC and the development of logistics. Furthermore, some comments are added on the appropriateness of key performance indicators (KPI) as described in the CNC studies, the effectiveness of co-funding through CEF, ERDF and EFSI and the consultation with the stakeholders of the logistic sector. In addition, a comprehensive summary of relevant documents is given.

Client: EU Horizon 2020
Duration: 04/2016 – 04/2019
Partner: TU Viena, Fraunhofer ISI, DIW Berlin, NTNU, Sintef, Seureco, Comillas, NTUA, REKK, CEPS, UEA, ETH, Axpo, GE, IIASA, M-Five

Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation is a project funded by the EU Horizon 2020 programme and intends to support strategic decision making in Europe’s energy sector with the goal of promoting innovation towards a clean, secure and efficient energy system (http://www.set-nav.eu/).

The three key objectives of SET-Nav are 1.) enhancing modelling capacities for an increased understanding of interdependencies between actors, technologies and policy interventions in Europe’s energy system, 2.) providing a model-based decision support for achieving the policy objectives of the European Union regarding the energy system and 3.) ensuring a proper research orientation and a high impact through a continuous and in-depth stakeholder involvement and dialogue.

The role of M-Five in this project is 1.) integrating Croatia in the European version of ASTRA and 2.) assessing the macroeconomic impacts of several case studies. We collaborate in this task with Fraunhofer ISI, SEURECO and SINTEF and we will also conduct a comparison of the results of ASTRA with two other macroeconomic models (Nemesis and Remes). The case studies which will be assessed concerns the building sector and the energy-producing sector.

Client: European Climate Foundation (ECF), Brüssel
Duration: 11/2015 – 10/2017
Partner: Cambridge Econometrics (Lead), ElementEnergy, M-Five

The project is focusing on the economic impacts of a decarbonisation of the German car fleet and a corresponding transition of the automotive industry. Project objective is a quantification of economic impacts. The project is supported by a stakeholder group involving automotive, energy and chemical industries as well as associations from industry, consumers and environmental protection.

The economic analysis is undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics applying their E3ME model for Germany to assess economic impacts of different scenarios of diffusion of alternative propulsion technologies for cars, variants of oil prices as well as modifications of value chains. Future technology cost of technologies to be implemented in low carbon cars are derived from technology databases of ElementEnergy and agreed by the stakeholder group.

M-Five analysed the potential modifications of value chains of major technologies to be implemented in low carbon cars, i.e. Lithium-Ion Batteries (LIB) and lightweight construction in particular using fibre reinforced plastics such as those building on carbon fibres. Further we brought the German perspective into the international project team. Our analysis of value chains is presented by two working paper:

• Analysis of the battery value chains with regard to the German industry and the global context
• Analysis of the light weight fiber reinforced plastics value chain with regard to the German industry in its global context

Also available for download are the Final Report of the study and the Summary Report.

Client: European Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
Duration: 05/2021 – 02/2022
Partner: M-Five

Topic:
This project analyses the opportunities for European battery cell manufacturing to power electric mobility. The focus is on the battery value chain, the strategies of European OEM and employment effects. An analysis of the status quo of battery cell production in Europe is complemented by an outlook on planned investments and resulting production capacity until 2030.
By assessing strategic factors of battery cell manufacturing a location matrix identifies and evaluates attractive locations for the establishment of future battery cell production and compares European countries with their international competitors.
In addition, we analysed the technical innovation system (TIS) of cell manufacturing concluding that today Europe has developed a suitable political framework, an R&D landscape and an industrial eco-system enabling successful European lithium-ion cell manufacturing. The competitiveness of European manufacturers is evaluated with a view to global and in particular Asian competitors, as well as their ability to create value in Europe and maintain jobs. A synthesis presents the identified opportunities and risks of European battery cell production.

Context: (objectives and (political) framework)
It is obvious: with the policy framework enfolding over the last 10 years and put into place for the next 10 to 30 years, the transition to electric mobility will take place. There is no question about the „if“, the question is only about the „how“ to cope with the transition to electric mobility. The task of the project is to shed light onto one pillar of the transition which is of particular importance for the future automotive industry: the high-power lithium-ion battery value chains
 

Research questions:

• What technological developments are expected for lithium-ion battery cells by 2030 and what significance will NMC and LFP cathodes have in the future?
• What strategies are European car manufacturers pursuing with regard to battery cell procurement and production and what challenges arise along the value chain?
• Which European locations are attractive for the establishment of local battery cell production and where are previously announced factories being built?
• What employment effects will be caused by the transformation to electrification?
• What recommendations for Europe as a location can be derived from the preceding analyses?

 Contact:  Ines.Haug[at]m-five.de, Wolfgang.Schade[at]m-five.de

Publication:
Schade W., Haug I., Berthold D. (2022) The future of the automotive sector. Emerging battery value chains in Europe, Report 2022.02, M-Five, ETUI

Client: RFC Rhine-Alpine - European Economic Interest Grouping (EEIG), Frankfurt/Main
Duration: 06/2017 - 01/2019
Partner: TRT Trasporti e Territorio (Lead), TML Transport & Mobility Leuven, SSP CONSULT, Lucchini-Mariotta e Associati SA, M-Five

This study investigated the market potential for rail freight transport along the Rhine Alpine Rail Freight Corridor (RALP-RFC). The focus of the study was to identify how the rail freight market share along the corridor could be increased by exploring possible enhancements of rail services in terms of heavier, faster and more reliable trains along the RALP-RFC.

Focussing on measures under the direct influence of the infrastructure manager (IM), the following three strategies were selected for detailed analysis, given that the highest growth was expected from them:

• heavier trains: ideal train weight for 740m-long trains
• faster trains: reduction of number of stops
• more reliable trains: improved punctuality and information on delayed trains

The study estimated the current rail freight demand on the RALP-RFC, as well as the demand pertaining to the same catchment areas currently satisfied by other modes (road and inland waterway).

In order to quantify the modal shift potential, cost factors concerning the three chosen improvement measures were evaluated via expert interviews.

A stated preference survey gathered the market reaction on certain service enhancements by deriving the market responsiveness relating to both price and time variations. From the resulting market response, the cost savings potential for the railway undertakings was derived. This potential in turn constituted the basis for the evaluation of the modal shift potential.

Finally, the consortium formulated qualitative recommendations for the enhancement of rail freight on the corridor. M-Five was involved in the market analysis and the survey in relation to German and French speaking stakeholders.

The final summary report of the Transport Market Study is published

Client: Requested by the manager of the Atlantic Corridor
Duration: 07/2016 – 12/2018
Partner: SYSTRA / INECO / IP Engenharia

The objective of this project is the development of the Monitoring Centre for the Rail Freight Atlantic Corridor, which provides information, mainly about the market and its associated variables, by periodic reports and other information from the Corridor activities (KPI, TAG/RAG, Panel survey, etc.) as its Scorecard.

This activity is expected to complement the necessary information between periods in which the Corridor decides to update its Transport Market Study (TMS).

At the same time, it must provide information about the relevant issues coming from the SWOT analysis made by the Corridor in its TMS.

In particular, the project consists of:

• monitoring socioeconomic paramenters
• monitoring of selected O/D relations and
• monitoring the quality of rail service

M-Five is in charge of investigating the evolution of the environmental impacts and of covering the German section of the corridor.