PUBLICATION PORTAL

The Covid-Pandemics, the Russian-Ukraine war and the resulting energy crisis as well as the European Fit-4-55 package and the strengthened German Climate Law from 2021 have massively changed the framework conditions for transport and climate policy. The scenario REF-2050 takes these changes into account and projects developments of electric mobility, transport demand and GHG of transport in Germany until 2050.

“What is the real benefit of the Deutschlandticket?” Christian Scherf discussed this question with WDR presenter Marija Bakker in a radio interview. The talk was prompted by the project “Employment effects of the ‘Deutschlandticket’ in the German public transport “, which M-Five is conducting on behalf of the Hans Böckler Foundation.

The temporary fare of 9-Euro per month for the nationwide usage of public transport in Germany revealed the potential of simplification of the fare structure for modal-shift. This study assesses several options for the so-called D-Ticket to foster modal-shift from private cars to public transport. It also quantifies the achievable savings of GHG emissions.

With traffic concepts, municipalities have the opportunity to sustainably redesign public space. Various systems and measures are available for this purpose. Through congestion charging systems, there is the possibility of increasing the financial security of municipalities. It is important to consider possible conflicts of objectives. Get the complete edition here.

The German transport sector by 2030 needs to half its GHG emissions compared with 2019. The keynote highlights seven policy levers to pull to achieve such a target. It also raises the question if the option to continuously increase the number of car-free weekends would be appreciated better than the presented levers.

Until 2021 battery cells for electric vehicles have primarily been imported from Asia. However, Europe is a large EV market and in the future will not continue to merely import cells. Analysing the location factors and the innovation system reveals that Germany and other EU countries provide promising conditions to establish own cell manufacturing capacities, which until 2030 will enable to supply more than 900 GWh of batteries for EVs per year.

Road freight transport accounts for one third of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in transport. By 2030, almost half of the GHG must be reduced. Heavy truck transport must also make a major contribution to this. The strategies and instruments for the success of the zero-emission truck will be introduced in this presentation.

Analysis of the European technological innovation system (TIS) for development of lithium-ion-battery cells (LiB). Elaboration of manufacturing scenarios for LiB cell manufacturing in Europe until 2030. Comparison of potentials of NMC and LFP cells.

This edition covers the passenger development in public transport as well as the sharing offer in cities and surrounding municipalities. In addition, the fleet and new registrations of electric cars as well as the development of charging infrastructure are presented.

The REF-2020 scenario provides a description of the German transport system until 2030 and 2035. It is applied for impact assessments of further climate mitigation measures in the transport sector.

What happens when public transport is expanded by new mobility services? IZT and M-Five investigated this question on behalf of the Hans Böckler Foundation (HBS). The HBS Working Paper focuses on current drivers, but also future interrelations, potential for change and design options as well as consequences for work and employment. Using the “Business Model Canvas”, the paper explains the challenges that arise for providers, demanders and framework actors of public transport.

The development of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is driven by the TEN-T guidelines. M-Five coordinated the impact assessment accompanying the revision of the TEN-T guideline in 2022 (EU REG 1315/2013). Implementation of the TEN-T proposal would cost up to 427 Bn. €. The improved infrastructure and the investment would shift the GDP growth on a path 2,4% higher in 2050 than without the measures.

The authors describe the expertise required for the linked transition of energy and mobility.

The contribution of M-Five deals with multimodal mobility concepts for securing mobility with electric vehicles.

Following the invitation of the SRH Berlin University of Applied Sciences , results of the CAD project were presented. In passenger transport, employment is declining, but job losses are partially compensated by new occupations. In freight transport, the decline is even greater due to automated vehicles. In both areas, significant employment declines among drivers are expected, while other jobs are less affected and have a stabilizing effect.

In order to reduce CO₂ emissions from transport, the spread of alternative, especially electric drivetrains in the passenger car sector is of great importance. The decision to buy a car is not totally objective and only partly based on cost. This paper compares three market diffusion models (ASTRA, ALADIN and TE3) with regard to the integration of user behavior when buying a car.

On the basis of two transformation scenarios (e-mobility scenario and multi-modality scenario), the effect on employment in Germany is analysed. The scenarios require investments of almost €700 billion between 2019 and 2035 for the transformation plus passenger car investments.

An increased bicycle boom has been reported since the outbreak of the corona pandemic. The already growing popularity of bicycles, as it is assumed, has received an additional boost from the corona restrictions. But is the increase in bicycle purchases also reflected in the usage rates of bicycles? We want to approach this question with this discursive analysis.

The development of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is driven by the TEN-T guidelines. M-Five coordinated the impact assessment accompanying the revision of the TEN-T guideline in 2022 (EU REG 1315/2013). Implementation of the TEN-T proposal would cost up to 427 Bn. €. The improved infrastructure and the investment would shift the GDP growth on a path 2,5% higher in 2050 than without the measures.

For the project “Employment effects of sustainable mobility in Germany until 2035”, M-Five analysed how the economic situation of public transport was before the pandemic. Possible futures of public transport were described in two sustainability scenarios: in one case, the upswing of electromobility on the road and in the environmental alliance, in the other case, the expansion of rail into a surface railroad with connecting mobility in public transport and through new mobility services. On this basis – and in view of the prevailing crisis – regulatory design options are proposed.

Brand loyalty and the available supply of e-cars from German OEMs play an important role in the market uptake of e-cars in Germany and in achieving the climate targets.

The transition to sustainable mobility will change industrial structures in Germany. More than 100,000 jobs will get lost in manufacturing of combustion engines. New jobs will emerge in development and manufacturing of electric cars and assistance systems for automated driving. Such systems enabling autonomous driving after 2030 will cause the next disruption of employment in the mobility and logistics service industries.

This issue highlights public transit ridership trends and the development of the sharing market in Corona’s second year. In addition, current bicycle counts are evaluated in comparison to 2019 and the pedestrian accessibility of rail stops is examined.

The mobility transition is a political goal shared by more and more people in Germany. Public transport is important for regional value creation and employment. During the Corona pandemic, passenger numbers declined sharply. For the project “Employment effects of sustainable mobility in Germany until 2035”, M-Five analyzed how the future of public transport and its employees looked before the pandemic (Deine Bahn 07/2021, pages 56-59).

Driven by new participants and innovations, new mobility services are emerging. This is increasingly true for public transport. In this dynamic, public transport may come more and more under pressure to seize new opportunities for development. The project “Public Transport between Public Welfare and Commerce” examines these dynamics and presents initial theses.

Mobility in Germany is undergoing structural change. Through digitalisation, automation, electrification, sustainability, new technologies and usage patterns, changes also seem to be increasingly taking place in the field of public transport under the heading of New Mobility”.

Analysis and evaluation of employment impacts of connected and automated driving (CAD) in Europe until 2050. After 2030 the level of employment in freight transport will be substantially reduced caused by the deployment of CAD. However, automotive and IT-supply industries will benefit from the added value generated by CAD technologies.

This issue describes amongst others the decline in the use of public transport as well as the development of the sharing markets in the Corona-Crisis year 2020. It compares bike counts and new e-car registrations of 2020 with the previous year. In addition, with this issue it is the first time that with Hannover and Duesseldorf two major cities were taken into account.

The presentation contains key results from the project “Employment impacts of sustainable mobility in Germany until 2035”. The focus is on the effects of automated driving, which has a significant impact on the future prospects of regional employment in the German transport industry (In conference transcript from page 57).

In April 2020, we examined the consequences of two scenarios: only one lockdown in the second quarter of 2020 or a longer duration of the Corona pandemic with two lockdowns in 2020. The gross domestic product (GDP) falls in the scenarios by -5% to -9% in 2020.

Employment impacts of sustainable mobility in Germany until 2035: M-Five analysed how the mobility transition can affect employment in the vehicle industry. In relation to current employment in passenger car production, growth can be seen especially in regions where components for the electromobility are beeing produced.

Publicly used two-wheelers are one of the new forms of mobility. Compared to public transport and car sharing, they have lower access barriers as well as energy and space consumption. In this respect, scooter, kick scooter, and bike sharing are also relevant to the mobility transition. But does this also apply to other types of space? This article is based on a study of mobility concepts in Germany up to 2050.

This edition shows the number of cycling trips and sharing providers shortly after the start of the Corona crisis. Despite the differences between the cities, cycling shows a crisis-proof development overall. Up to the time of the survey, the market for shared mobility offers made it through the crisis on a positive note.

M-Five and Fraunhofer ISI have been commissioned by the Hans Böckler Foundation to investigate the effects of a transformation of mobility in Germany with regard to employment. The aim of the overall project is to analyze the employment effects of sustainable mobility in Germany up to 2035.

Sustainable mobility can be achieved through the electrification of road transport and the massive expansion of new multi-modal mobility concepts. Economic development remains secure, but there will be a massive structural change in employment that can affect up to 4 million workers.

The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is core element of EU transport policy. M-Five has applied its ASTRA-EU model to assess the GDP and job impacts of implementing the TEN-T by 2030. Considering different funding mechanims, productivity and trade impacts our results reveal that GDP will be 1,6% higher than without TEN-T.

The focus is on the development of light rail and tram systems in major German cities and the market dynamics of shared vehicles. Although the rail networks have been expanded in absolute terms in many cities, the route length per inhabitant has not increased since 2004. In shared mobility, e-scooters provided an increased overall supply.

This issue describes the development of the sharing market, which was characterised by new providers and growing fleets. Further topics are the employment level of urban mobility offers and the shares of round-trip commuters. The review shows an increasing importance of alternatives to cars.

The implementation of the TEN-T until 2030 was progressing slowly. In particular cross-border projects were delayed due to complex permitting processes taking place in both neighbouring countries. Thus the EU aimed for a better coordination and simplified permitting of TEN-T core network projects. M-Five contributed with their expertise on economic analysis to the impact assessment. Results contributed to the EU Streamlining Directive (EU 2021/1187).

The main topics of this issue were time and area comparisons between motorised individual transport (MIV) and public transport (ÖPNV). The results show that tram and subway speeds vary significantly between cities of similar size. It was confirmed that private and company cars occupy significant shares of space per city.

The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is core element of EU transport policy. M-Five has assessed the GDP and job impacts of implementing the TEN-T by 2030. Our results show that GDP will be 1,6% higher than without TEN-T. 7,5 million job-years will be created.

The focus of the issue is on public transport and non-motorised transport. The example of Hamburg shows a growth of regular users of public transport that goes beyond the mere effect of population development. The analysis of pedestrian traffic supports the assumption that the MIV has an advantage over the ÖPNV with regard to the length of access and exit routes.

The German-Japanese forum discusses decarbonisation strategies for transport. The talk provides for an evaluation of the GHG savings achievable by different strategic measures for transport until 2030. Further the shortfall of current EU proposals for CO2-standards of cars for 2030 to contribute to achieving the national climate targets is shown.

This article is part of a publication series on the passenger transport market in Germany. Among other things, the issue presents results on standing and seating capacity in local transport in selected cities.

This article is part of a publication series on the passenger transport market in Germany. The issue presents, among other things, energy sources by passenger transport performance, intermodal routes by weather impact, shares of e-cars in car sharing fleets and electronic payment options of selected mobility apps.

In recent years the number of car-sharing business models has been increased substantially covering more and more cities in Germany. In parallel the use of mobility apps are spreading. Their capabilities enable easy access to car-sharing as well as integrating it with public transport and other mobility services. The presentation sketches visions of the future of mobility in which shared-mobility use strongly increases and thus leads to a reduction of private car-ownership and use.

This article is part of a publication series on the passenger transport market in Germany. Among other things, the issue presents results on bike sharing in selected cities. The state of Hessen was identified as the front-runner in terms of density and expansion of bikesharing stations.

This article is part of a publication series on the passenger transport market in Germany. The issue quantifies the development of shared mobility offers and covers the topics of multimodality, electromobility and the aspect of digitalisation.

This article is part of a publication series on the passenger transport market in Germany. Findings in this issue included the decline in momentum in the car sharing market, the growth in transport performance in bikesharing and the coverage by mobile ticketing systems of about one third of Germany’s inhabitants.